TLRY Soars 29.5% on Trump Marijuana Reclassification Rumors and Premium Vape Launch – Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Tilray Brands (TLRY) surges 29.5% intraday, trading at $10.92 after opening at $11.64
• Trump administration rumors of reclassifying marijuana to Schedule III spark 28% premarket rally
• Redecan’s Amped Live Resin Vape Cartridges launch drives premium segment expansion
• Options chain sees explosive volume in $10–$11 strike prices, with 154.59%–167.12% implied volatility spikes

Tilray Brands is experiencing one of its most volatile trading days in 2025, fueled by a perfect storm of regulatory optimism and product innovation. The stock’s 29.5% intraday surge follows reports that President Trump is considering reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, a move that could unlock billions in market potential. Simultaneously, Tilray’s new Redecan Amped Live Resin Vape Cartridges, targeting Canada’s growing premium cannabis segment, have ignited investor enthusiasm. With options volatility spiking and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the question now is whether this momentum can sustain.

Trump Marijuana Reclassification and Premium Vape Launch Drive TLRY’s Volatility
Tilray’s 29.5% intraday surge is directly tied to two catalysts: (1) reports that the Trump administration is considering reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, which would ease federal restrictions and boost demand for cannabis products, and (2) the launch of Redecan’s Amped Live Resin Vape Cartridges, a premium product targeting Canada’s high-growth vape segment. The stock’s premarket rally of 27.52% to $10.75 was further amplified by post-market news of the product launch, which aligns with seasonal demand peaks in December–February. This dual-driven momentum reflects both regulatory optimism and strategic product innovation, positioning Tilray to capture market share in a sector poised for policy-driven expansion.

Options Volatility and ETF Positioning Signal High-Risk, High-Reward Opportunities
• MACD: 1.86 (above signal line 1.23), RSI: 89.12 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Upper $10.41 (below current price), 200D MA: $1.12 (far below price)
• Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ): 20% higher premarket, reflecting sector-wide optimism

Tilray’s technicals and options data suggest a short-term bullish bias, but caution is warranted given the stock’s 36.6% YTD decline and -983.73x negative PE. The most compelling options are TLRY20251219C10 and TLRY20251219P11, both with high implied volatility and liquidity. For a 5% upside scenario (targeting $11.47), TLRY20251219C10 (strike $10, expiration 12/19) offers a 600% price change potential with a delta of 0.647 and leverage ratio of 8.29%. TLRY20251219P11 (strike $11, expiration 12/19) provides 44.05% upside with a delta of -0.509 and leverage ratio of 8.49%, ideal for hedging against a pullback. Aggressive bulls should consider TLRY20251219C10 into a break above $12.20 (intraday high), while cautious traders may use TLRY20251219P11 to lock in gains if the stock consolidates below $10.59 (intraday low).

Backtest Tilray Brands Stock Performance
The backtest of TLRY's performance after a 30% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 30-day win rate is 44.04%, indicating a majority of days experiencing a positive return, the maximum return during the backtest period is only 4.12%, suggesting that the stock does not consistently deliver strong returns following such a surge.

TLRY’s Volatility Hinges on Trump Policy and Product Execution – Key Levels to Watch
Tilray’s 29.5% intraday surge is a high-stakes bet on regulatory tailwinds and product differentiation. While the Trump administration’s potential marijuana reclassification could unlock long-term value, near-term sustainability depends on Tilray’s ability to execute its premium vape strategy and maintain momentum above $10.59 (200D MA). Investors should monitor the $12.20 intraday high as a critical breakout level and the $10.59 support for signs of capitulation. For context, sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is up 0.43%, underscoring the cannabis sector’s divergence from broader pharma. Aggressive traders may consider TLRY20251219C10 for a bullish play, but caution is advised given the stock’s extreme volatility and negative PE. Watch for $12.20 breakout or regulatory clarity by 12/19.