TJX Surges 2.87% on Q3 Earnings Beat and Holiday Optimism: Is This the Start of a Bullish Run?

Summary
• The TJX Companies (TJX) surged 2.87% to $152.3251, hitting its 52-week high of $152.35.
• Q3 earnings beat expectations with $1.28 EPS (up 12%) and $15.1B revenue (up 7%), driven by 5% comp sales growth.
• CEO Ernie Herrman highlighted a 'strong start' to the holiday season, but guidance fell short of Wall Street's 3.1% comp sales target.
• The discount retail sector faces mixed signals: TJX outperformed peers like Walmart (WMT), which fell 1.22% despite its own earnings beat.

The TJX Companies’ stock is riding a wave of optimism fueled by robust Q3 results and holiday season positioning. With comp sales growth exceeding expectations and a raised full-year outlook, investors are betting on TJX’s ability to capitalize on value-conscious consumer demand. However, sector dynamics and tariff pressures remain critical watchpoints as the stock tests its 52-week high.

Q3 Earnings Beat and Holiday Guidance Fuel TJX’s Rally
TJX’s 2.87% intraday surge stems from its Q3 earnings report, which revealed $1.28 EPS (up 12% YoY) and $15.1B revenue (up 7% YoY), driven by 5% comp sales growth across all divisions. CEO Ernie Herrman emphasized the company’s 'strong start' to the holiday season, with exceptional merchandise availability and a compelling value proposition. While the company raised full-year guidance—projecting 4% comp sales growth and $4.63–$4.66 EPS—its Q4 comp sales guidance of 2–3% fell short of Wall Street’s 3.1% expectation. The rally reflects optimism about TJX’s ability to outperform in a challenging retail environment, leveraging its off-price model amid higher tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Discount Retail Sector Mixed as TJX Outpaces Walmart
The discount retail sector showed divergent momentum, with TJX outperforming Walmart (WMT), which fell 1.22% despite beating Q3 earnings. Walmart’s decline reflects broader retail sector pressures, including reduced foot traffic and inventory challenges. TJX’s strength contrasts with peers like Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KHC), which have struggled with holiday hiring and store closures. TJX’s 5% comp sales growth—driven by Marmaxx (6%), HomeGoods (5%), and TJX Canada (8%)—highlights its unique positioning as a value destination in a cost-conscious market.

Options and ETF Plays for TJX’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.278 (above signal line 1.090), RSI: 78.42 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $139.62–$148.93 (price at upper band).
• 200-day MA: $130.71 (well below current price), 30-day MA: $143.85 (bullish crossover).

TJX’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with RSI nearing overbought territory and MACD signaling momentum. Key support/resistance levels at $143.63 (30D) and $124.09 (200D) are critical for trend continuation. The stock’s 52-week high at $152.35 acts as a psychological barrier, but strong volume (5.2M shares) and elevated turnover rate (0.47%) indicate conviction in the rally.

Top Options Picks:

• TJX20251128C152.5 (Call, $152.5 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 14.75% (moderate), Leverage: 113.75%, Delta: 0.507 (neutral), Theta: -0.3648 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.1198 (high sensitivity).
- This contract offers a 154.90% price change ratio, making it ideal for a short-term bullish bet. The high gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings, while the moderate IV balances risk and reward.

• TJX20251128C155 (Call, $155 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 12.95% (low), Leverage: 461.89%, Delta: 0.203 (moderate), Theta: -0.1656 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.0967 (high sensitivity).
- With a 166.67% price change ratio and high leverage, this option suits aggressive bulls. The low IV and high gamma make it a speculative play if TJX breaks above $155.

Payoff Estimation: A 5% upside to $159.94 would yield a 130.77% return on the $150 strike call and a 166.67% return on the $155 strike call. Aggressive bulls may consider TJX20251128C155 into a breakout above $155.

Backtest The Tjx Stock Performance
Key findings1. Signal definition • Because intraday tick data is not available in the current tool-set, a “3 % intraday surge” was proxied with a ≥ 3 % close-to-close daily gain. • All trading days from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-21 meeting that rule were treated as event dates (24 events).2. Event-study highlights (30-day window, 24 events) • Average performance is soft: cumulative event excess return turns negative during the first two trading weeks and never recovers meaningfully. • Win-rate hovers near 50 %; downside tail dominates early-period returns (-1.2 % at day 5 vs. +0.4 % median). • Statistical flags (“Significantly negative”) begin to appear from day 4 through day 12, indicating a tendency toward mean-reversion after sharp one-day pops.3. Practical takeaway • For TJX during 2022-2025, buying right after a ≥ 3 % daily jump did not lead to attractive forward returns; short-term pullbacks were more common. • Momentum continuation beyond two weeks was limited; strategies might focus on fading such spikes or waiting ~15–20 trading days before re-entry.4. Parameter notes • Start date, end date, and 3 % threshold were taken directly from the user request. • Close prices were used; this avoids overnight gap distortions and aligns with daily return calculation. • A 30-day event window (±30 calendar ≈ 21 trading days after) is the default of the event-backtest engine; this was retained to give a full month of post-event behaviour.You can explore the full interactive back-test report below.(Open the module if it is not automatically displayed.)Let me know if you’d like to refine the signal (e.g., use intraday high vs. open, add filters, or adjust holding horizons) or run a comparative study versus peers.

TJX’s Rally Hinges on Holiday Execution and Tariff Resilience
TJX’s 2.87% surge reflects confidence in its holiday season positioning and off-price model, but sustainability depends on comp sales momentum and tariff mitigation. Investors should monitor the $152.35 52-week high and $143.63 support level. The discount sector’s mixed performance, with Walmart (WMT) down 1.22%, underscores the need for TJX to outperform expectations. For now, the stock’s technicals and earnings-driven optimism justify a bullish stance, but caution is warranted if inventory pressures or tariff headwinds resurface. Watch for a breakout above $155 to validate the rally’s longevity.