TJX Soars to 52-Week High on Earnings Beat and Retail Resilience

Summary
• TJX surges 2.52% to $151.80, hitting its 52-week high of $152.58
• Q3 earnings beat expectations with $1.28 EPS vs. $1.22 projected
• Guidance raised for FY2026 despite holiday quarter shortfall
• Turnover jumps 0.51% as off-price retail demand surges

The TJX Companies (TJX) is riding a wave of optimism as its Q3 earnings report outperformed expectations, driving shares to a record intraday high. With a 2.52% rally fueled by strong comp sales and holiday optimism, the stock is now trading near its 52-week peak. The discount retail giant’s ability to capitalize on value-conscious consumer spending amid inflationary pressures has positioned it as a standout in a sector grappling with mixed performance.

Q3 Earnings Beat and Holiday Optimism Drive TJX's Rally
TJX’s 2.52% surge stems from a combination of outperforming Q3 results and bullish holiday forecasts. The company reported $1.28 EPS, surpassing the $1.22 expected, while revenue hit $15.12 billion, exceeding the $14.85 billion forecast. CEO Ernie Herrman highlighted a 'strong start' to the holiday season, with off-price retail positioning as a gifting destination for value-conscious shoppers. Despite missing holiday guidance (3.1% comp growth vs. 2%-3% forecast), the stock rallied as investors focused on the broader 4% FY2026 comp sales guidance, which outpaces the 3.4% analyst expectation. The report underscores TJX’s resilience in a macroeconomic environment where higher tariffs and inflation are pushing consumers toward discounters.

Discount Retailers Rally as Consumers Seek Value, Despite Walmart's Downturn
While Walmart (WMT) fell 1.13% on the same day, TJX outperformed its discount retail peers by leveraging its off-price model. The sector is witnessing a shift as affluent shoppers increasingly trade down to value retailers, a trend accelerated by inflation. TJX’s 5% Q3 comp sales growth (vs. 3.7% expected) contrasted with Target’s (TGT) profit outlook cuts and Home Depot’s (HD) revised forecasts. The company’s ability to balance inventory availability with aggressive pricing has made it a standout in a sector where Walmart’s recent grocery discounts and store remodels have yet to fully resonate with investors.

Options and ETFs Highlight Short-Term Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.278 (above signal line 1.090), RSI: 78.42 (overbought), 200D MA: 130.71 (well below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 151.80 (above upper band 148.93), 30D MA: 143.85 (bullish divergence)

TJX’s technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish momentum. The stock is trading above its 200-day moving average by a wide margin and has broken out of a tight Bollinger Band range. For traders, the key levels to watch are the 148.93 upper band (now support) and the 139.62 lower band (resistance). A break above 152.58 (52-week high) could trigger a retest of the 155.00 psychological level. While no leveraged ETFs are available, the stock’s high turnover (562,369 shares) and implied volatility (17.83%-45.28% across options) make it a viable candidate for directional plays.

Top Options Picks:
• TJX20251128C149 (Call, $149 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 18.98% (moderate), Leverage: 43.37%, Delta: 0.756, Theta: -0.494, Gamma: 0.073, Turnover: 531,957
- Payoff at 5% upside (159.39): $10.39/share. This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continued rally.
• TJX20251128C150 (Call, $150 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 17.83% (moderate), Leverage: 56.21%, Delta: 0.686, Theta: -0.464, Gamma: 0.089, Turnover: 133,881
- Payoff at 5% upside (159.39): $9.39/share. The higher leverage ratio makes this a compelling choice for aggressive bulls, though its lower delta requires a sharper price move to unlock gains.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider TJX20251128C149 into a break above $152.58, while conservative traders can use TJX20251128C150 for a leveraged play on the 155.00 target.

Backtest The Tjx Stock Performance
I’m sorry — the event-backtest engine ran into an internal error while processing the 3 %-surge dates file (the statistics converter in the engine failed). The underlying price data and surge-date list were generated successfully, so all inputs are intact; only the visualization/statistics step failed.To keep things moving, you have a couple of options:1. Wait for a quick engine patch and re-run the same event study (no extra input needed). 2. Use a simplified workaround right now: • Treat every ≥ 3 % close-to-close surge as a “buy” signal at next-day open. • Exit after a fixed holding window (e.g. 5 or 10 trading days), or with a profit/stop-loss cap. • We’d run this through the strategy-backtest engine, which is not affected by the current bug, and you’d still receive full performance metrics and charts.Please let me know which route you prefer (and, if you choose option 2, your preferred holding rule / risk limits).

TJX's Rally Gains Momentum—Position for Holiday Season Strength
TJX’s rally is underpinned by a compelling mix of earnings outperformance, holiday optimism, and macro-driven consumer behavior. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of its bullish trajectory, particularly if it clears the 152.58 52-week high. Investors should monitor the 148.93 support level and the sector leader Walmart’s (-1.13%) performance for broader retail sentiment cues. With the holiday season in full swing, TJX’s ability to maintain its pricing edge and inventory appeal could solidify its position as a top-performing discount retailer. Act now: Buy TJX20251128C149 for a high-probability trade on the 155.00 target.