TJX Skyrockets 3.26%—Can This Retail Titan Sustain Momentum Amid Tariff Uncertainty?

Summary
• Q2 comparable sales surged 4%, outpacing guidance by 100 bps
• Pretax margin hit 11.4%, a 50 bps beat, while EPS of $1.10 (+15% YoY) stunned analysts
• Share repurchases and dividends returned $1 billion to shareholders, fueling short-term optimism
• Intraday price swung from $138.14 to $145.57, reflecting volatile retail sector dynamics

The TJX Companies (TJX) has ignited a 3.26% rally on a blockbuster Q2 earnings report, with comp sales, margins, and EPS all exceeding expectations. The stock’s 52-week high of $145.57 suggests bulls are capitalizing on a resilient off-price retail model amid tariff-driven consumer caution. With CEO Ernie Herrman’s aggressive store expansion plans and a $2.5 billion stock buyback program, the question looms: Is this a sustainable breakout or a short-term pop?

Earnings Surge and Guidance Hike Drive TJX’s Bullish Rebound
TJX’s 3.26% intraday gain stems from a Q2 earnings report that shattered expectations. The company reported 4% comp sales growth (vs. 4% guidance), 11.4% pretax margin (vs. 10.9% prior year), and $1.10 EPS (up 15% YoY). Management credited strong customer transactions across all divisions, including 9% comp growth in Canada and 5% in Europe. The $1.2 billion net income and $1.0 billion shareholder returns further signaled confidence in its off-price model. By raising full-year EPS guidance to $4.52–$4.57 (up from $4.34–$4.43), TJX positioned itself as a tariff-resistant retail leader, attracting both fundamental and technical buyers.

Discount Retailers Rally on Resilient Demand as TJX Outpaces ROST
The discount retail sector gained traction as TJX’s 3.26% surge contrasted with Ross Stores (ROST)’s -0.34% dip. While ROST, the sector’s leader, struggled with inventory management and margin pressures, TJX’s 30.7% gross margin (up 30 bps YoY) and dynamic sourcing strategy highlighted its competitive edge. TJX’s ability to offset tariff impacts through diversified sourcing and aggressive store expansion (1,800 new stores planned) underscores its dominance in a sector where value-driven consumers are increasingly prioritizing off-price channels over traditional retail.

Bullish Setup Confirmed—ETFs and Options for Capitalizing on TJX’s Momentum
• RSI: 76.39 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.32 (bullish divergence from signal line 1.91)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 139.01 near upper band (136.62), suggesting overextension
• 200D MA: 124.14 (price at 139.01, 14.87% above)

TJX’s technicals confirm a short-term bullish breakout. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $145.57 and the 200D MA at $124.14. The RSI’s overbought condition and MACD’s positive histogram suggest momentum is intact, but traders should monitor for a pullback to the 132.00–134.00 range before initiating longs. The XRT ETF (Retail Select Sector SPDR) could serve as a leveraged proxy, though its liquidity and volatility profile are less aggressive than TJX’s options chain.

Top Option 1: TJX20250829C134
• Code: TJX20250829C134
• Type: Call
• Strike: $134
• Expiry: 2025-08-29
• IV: 21.43% (moderate)
• LVR: 25.02% (high)
• Delta: 0.8629 (high)
• Theta: -0.4038 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0444 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 60,213 (liquid)
• IV: Implied volatility suggests moderate risk/reward balance
• LVR: High leverage amplifies returns on a 5% price move
• Delta: High delta ensures strong directional exposure
• Theta: Aggressive time decay favors near-term execution
• Gamma: High gamma means delta will increase as price rises
• Turnover: High liquidity ensures smooth entry/exit
• Payoff: At 5% upside (146.01), payoff = $12.01/share. With 60,213 contracts traded, this is a liquid, high-leverage play for bulls.

Top Option 2: TJX20250829C135
• Code: TJX20250829C135
• Type: Call
• Strike: $135
• Expiry: 2025-08-29
• IV: 14.27% (low)
• LVR: 31.90% (very high)
• Delta: 0.9054 (very high)
• Theta: -0.4009 (aggressive decay)
• Gamma: 0.0512 (very high)
• Turnover: 113,280 (extremely liquid)
• IV: Low volatility suggests potential for IV expansion if the rally continues
• LVR: Extreme leverage for a 5% move (146.01) yields $11.01/share payoff
• Delta: Near-ATM delta offers balanced exposure
• Theta: High time decay favors quick execution
• Gamma: Very high sensitivity to price changes
• Turnover: Massive liquidity ensures no slippage
• Payoff: At 5% upside, payoff = $11.01/share. This is a high-risk, high-reward call for aggressive bulls.

Hook: If $140 holds, TJX20250829C134 offers a 10:1 risk/reward ratio. Aggressive bulls may consider rolling into TJX20250829C135 if the 52-week high breaks.

Backtest The Tjx Stock Performance
The backtest of TJX's performance after an intraday surge of 3% shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 52.98%, the 10-Day win rate at 58.94%, and the 30-Day win rate at 63.61%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 4.34%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that there is potential for positive movement following a 3% intraday surge.

Bullish Momentum Intact—Position for Next Move as Guidance Lifts Hopes
TJX’s 3.26% surge is underpinned by a resilient off-price model, tariff-resistant sourcing, and a $2.5 billion buyback program. While the RSI’s overbought condition and Bollinger Band overextension suggest a near-term consolidation, the 200D MA at $124.14 remains a critical support level. Traders should watch for a pullback to $132.00–$134.00 before re-entering longs. The sector’s strength, highlighted by TJX’s outperformance over ROST (-0.34%), reinforces its leadership in a value-driven retail landscape. For now, the 52-week high of $145.57 is the key target—break above it, and the $150.00 level becomes a new psychological benchmark.