Time for Caution as AI Speculation Looms Amid Macro Uncertainty and 5 Major AI Names Turn Technically Bearish

The overheating in gold and AI-driven headliners is amplifying a speculative atmosphere as markets attempt to recover from Trump’s latest tariff threat on China, which could escalate geopolitical tensions. With Q3 earnings season underway, high-tech names are showing stretched valuations while “AI bubble” concerns grow. The ongoing government shutdown risk and weakening technical indicators are pushing investors into a more defensive stance. Five major tech names now show bearish technical signals, suggesting potential downside ahead.

Looking at the broader market, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 regained some ground after last Friday’s losses as President Trump downplayed tariff risks, the rebound lacks convincing strength. The 3-day moving average continues to slope downward, while the 7- and 10-day averages await confirmation. If the indexes fail to push above prior highs, a more defined bearish pattern could emerge. Investors may interpret Trump’s remarks as an opportunity to sell, especially as valuations remain overstretched and enthusiasm around OpenAI’s partnerships with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom appears premature. While the ambitious AI buildout promises long-term gains, its realization is years away and fraught with uncertainty. Hence, Trump’s rhetoric could serve as the trigger for another pullback.

TSMC’s earnings on Thursday may provide a short-term catalyst. The chipmaker reported preliminary Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, up 8% quarter-over-quarter and 38% year-over-year. Shares have already surged 23% since the Q2 results, and while fundamentals remain strong given OpenAI’s major deals, profit-taking could lead to a classic “sell-the-fact” reaction. The overall tone is likely to stay moderate.

To hedge against potential downside risk, investors should note these five tech names that already exhibit bearish technical setups and heavy option activity suggesting short-term weakness.

Oracle (ORCL) remains below its post-earnings high as investors digest the $300 billion cloud deal with OpenAI over the next five years. Although shares have rebounded from recent lows, the chart suggests a likely “lower high” formation, implying a bearish setup. Traders see limited upside catalysts from OpenAI or TikTok-related developments amid growing geopolitical tension. OpenAI’s partnerships with Nvidia and AMD raise questions about Oracle’s future role, even as it expects $60 billion in cloud payments. Option data shows notable bearish positioning, with nearly 10,000 and 7,000 open puts at $290 and $300 expiring this Friday—more than double the at-the-money puts.

Palantir (PLTR) remains under pressure after reports that a U.S. Army memo flagged its system as “very high risk.” The stock has failed to reclaim recent highs and is forming a potential double-top pattern. Traders are heavily positioned for downside, with 16k and 12k open contracts for $170 and $165 puts expiring this Friday, signaling growing bearish sentiment.

AMD struggled Monday, falling further after last Friday’s 8% drop despite a broader market rebound. The weakness reflects profit-taking following OpenAI’s partnership news and the fresh Broadcom deal. Fundamentally, AMD exchanged 10% of its shares for OpenAI’s chip purchase commitment, but the agreement is non-binding and heavily dependent on the MI450 GPU series, which will not ship until the second half of 2026. The long lead time and uncertainty pose significant risks, especially as Nvidia becomes a major OpenAI shareholder through its own deal. Option activity shows 10K+ open puts each at $200 and $170 expiring this week, reinforcing near-term downside pressure. AMD appears vulnerable in the short term.

CoreWeave (CRWV) briefly broke above its August high before retreating, suggesting a potential double-top formation. The next key level to watch is $150; failure to hold above that resistance would confirm a bearish bias. Selling pressure has intensified as insiders aggressively offload shares despite support from OpenAI and Nvidia

Micron (MU) is also flashing warning signs as the 3-day moving average turns lower and crosses below the 7-day line, pointing to further weakness if momentum fails to recover. Option data indicates mounting bearish sentiment, with about 11,000 open puts each at $170 and $160, and another 13,000 at $135, implying some traders expect a sharp decline. The tone has shifted toward correction rather than continuation of the prior rally.

Overall, with AI-driven enthusiasm running high and valuations stretched, markets appear vulnerable to a short-term correction. Investors should remain cautious and consider defensive positioning as technical and macro signals turn more fragile.