Tilray Hit Record Revenue-Why a $4.54 Stock Still Looks Too Cheap

Record fiscal 2026 results make the $4.54 price hard to ignore

Tilray finished fiscal 2026 with fiscal 2026 revenue above $915 million, a pro forma annualized run rate near $1.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $61.1 million. It also ended the year with approximately $235 million in cash and marketable securities and less than $1 million of net debt. At a $4.54 share price, that balance-sheet and operating profile looks unusually clean for a company still labeled distressed.

That gap between business quality and stock price is the core opportunity. After a 49.72% decline in 2026 through late July, Tilray still traded around $4.54, well below its 52-week high of $23.20 and the average analyst price target of $11.00. Even so, MarketBeat still shows a Hold consensus. The market is not ignoring improvement; it is still pricing Tilray cautiously.

The bear case is straightforward, not imaginary. Tilray remains unprofitable at the net income level, and one quarter does not settle a multi-year turnaround. But the recent results still point to a company that is less cyclical and more balanced than its old cannabis-only label implies.

Tilray's diversification is the real valuation question

The debate is less about whether Tilray can grow and more about how investors choose to classify that growth. Recent results show the core business improving even without a dramatic top-line spike: gross profit rose 8% to $260 million, adjusted gross margin remained consistent at 29%, and net loss narrowed to $105.2 million. For a stock still weighed down by cannabis stigma, that is meaningful operating progress.

Why the mix matters more than the headline revenue number

Tilray's segment mix now looks broader than many investors still assume. In fiscal 2026, distribution revenue increased 21% to $327.2 million and beverage revenue increased 6% to $254 million. In cannabis, international cannabis revenue grew 34% to approximately $85 million, and international medical cannabis revenue increased 36% in an earlier quarter.

That mix matters because it makes Tilray easier to view as a beverage, cannabis, and wellness platform rather than a pure cannabis proxy. The company also operates in over 20 countries across North America, Europe, and Latin America, which supports the argument that its revenue base is broader than the stock's price action suggests.

What still needs proof from Tilray

This is not yet a clean profitability story. Tilray still reported a net loss of $105.2 million, so any re-rating still depends on more than a single strong year-end. What investors likely need next is consistency:

• stable gross margins
• continued strength in distribution and beverage
• ongoing momentum in international cannabis
• no deterioration in cash management

Management has also pointed to U.S. federal rescheduling as a potential unlock for medical expansion. That may matter more for sentiment than near-term results, but it only becomes investable if the operating story keeps improving alongside it.

The next earnings report is the first clean test of the thesis

With the stock at $4.54 as of July 31, 2026 and the 200-day moving average at $6.56, Tilray still has room to move if expectations shift. After the 49.72% decline in 2026 through late July, the market is no longer paying up for possibility alone. It wants evidence that the recent operating improvement can hold.

Analyst expectations were modest going into the report: a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $249.64 million. That is actually helpful for the bullish case. The quarter does not require a dramatic comeback story. It needs a clean in-line or beat that confirms margin discipline, cash management, and diversification are holding together.

If management also maintains its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook of $62 million to $72 million, investors will have a sturdier reason to reassess the stock. If guidance slips or cash use worsens enough to put approximately $235 million in cash and marketable securities at risk, the long-term thesis may still be intact, but the timing argument becomes weaker.