Tilray Brands Soars 11.41%—Is Trump’s Marijuana Reclassification the Catalyst?

Summary
• Tilray Brands (TLRY) surges 11.41% intraday, trading at $1.025 after opening at $1.10
• Intraday high hits $1.1996, low dips to $0.9552 amid $217M turnover
• Trump’s potential reclassification of marijuana sparks sector-wide optimism

Tilray Brands (TLRY) has ignited a frenzy in the cannabis sector, surging 11.41% intraday to $1.025 amid speculation that President Donald Trump may reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to III. The stock’s volatile trajectory—from a $0.9552 low to a $1.1996 high—reflects a market betting on regulatory tailwinds. With $217M in turnover and a 52-week range of $0.35–$1.96, investors are weighing the implications of potential federal policy shifts on cannabis taxation and business viability.

Trump’s Marijuana Reclassification Speculation Ignites TLRY Surge
Tilray’s meteoric rise is directly tied to President Trump’s public contemplation of reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug. This shift would remove cannabis from the same category as heroin and LSD, enabling companies to claim standard tax deductions and easing federal restrictions. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump’s remarks at a fundraising dinner, while his recent statement that a decision would be made 'over the next few weeks' amplified urgency. Investors are interpreting this as a green light for the cannabis industry, with TLRY’s 11.41% gain reflecting bets on normalized operations and profitability.

Cannabis Sector Volatility as TLRY Outpaces Peers
The cannabis sector, broadly classified under Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic, has seen mixed performance. While Tilray’s 11.41% gain is exceptional, peers like Canopy Growth (CGC, +2.22%) and Aurora Cannabis (ACB, +1.15%) lagged. This divergence highlights TLRY’s unique positioning as a global cannabis and beverage player, with its recent product launches (e.g., Mock One non-alcoholic spirits) and strategic expansions amplifying its appeal. The sector’s 2.66% intraday return, compared to the S&P 500’s 0.96%, underscores cannabis stocks’ sensitivity to regulatory news.

Options Playbook: Leveraging TLRY’s Volatility with August 22 Contracts
• 200-day average: 0.857 (below current price)
• RSI: 59.54 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.046 (bullish histogram)
• Bollinger Bands: $0.4886–$0.8248 (price near upper band)

TLRY’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid a long-term ranging pattern. Key levels to watch include the 200-day support at $0.4164 and the 30-day resistance at $0.5863. The stock’s 207.39% implied volatility and 6.70% leverage ratio on the August 22 $1 call option (TLRY20250822C1) make it a high-conviction play. For downside protection, the August 22 $1 put (TLRY20250822P1) offers 7.18% leverage but a -36.36% price change ratio, indicating aggressive bearish positioning.

Top Option 1: TLRY20250822C1 (Call)
• Strike: $1 | Expiration: 2025-08-22 | IV: 212.83% | Leverage: 6.70% | Delta: 0.5799 | Theta: -0.008278 | Turnover: $263,078
• IV: High volatility suggests strong price sensitivity
• Delta: Moderate directional exposure
• Theta: Aggressive time decay favors short-term moves
• Turnover: High liquidity ensures ease of entry/exit
• Payoff (5% up to $1.076): $0.076 per share, or $760 for a single contract
• Why it stands out: Balances leverage and liquidity for a bullish bet on Trump’s reclassification timeline.

Top Option 2: TLRY20250822P1 (Put)
• Strike: $1 | Expiration: 2025-08-22 | IV: 207.39% | Leverage: 7.18% | Delta: -0.4217 | Theta: -0.004246 | Turnover: $27,111
• IV: Elevated volatility for bearish positioning
• Delta: Moderate downside exposure
• Theta: Slower decay allows for longer holding
• Turnover: Adequate liquidity for risk management
• Payoff (5% down to $0.974): $0.026 per share, or $260 for a single contract
• Why it stands out: Offers asymmetric risk-reward for a pullback if regulatory optimism wanes.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider TLRY20250822C1 into a break above $1.10, while cautious bears might short TLRY20250822P1 if $0.95 retests.

Backtest Tilray Brands Stock Performance
The 11% intraday surge in TLRY has historically led to mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate is 44.02%, indicating a majority of days with positive returns, the overall 3-day return is -0.11%, suggesting that although there is a higher probability of positive returns, the actual returns have been negative in this short term. The 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 42.66%, with a 10-day return of 0.51%. However, the 30-day win rate is higher at 44.21%, with a 30-day return of 2.08%. This suggests that while there is some volatility in the immediate aftermath of the surge, TLRY tends to recover and even exceed its pre-surge levels in the medium term.

TLRY’s Trump-Driven Rally: A Short-Term Bet on Policy Uncertainty
Tilray’s 11.41% surge hinges on the binary outcome of Trump’s marijuana reclassification decision. While the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a bullish near-term bias, sustainability depends on regulatory clarity. Investors should monitor the August 22 options expiration for liquidity shifts and watch for a potential pullback to the 200-day support at $0.4164. Sector leader Canopy Growth (CGC) rose 2.22%, indicating broader cannabis optimism, but TLRY’s unique exposure to both cannabis and beverage markets positions it as a high-conviction play. Action: Target TLRY20250822C1 for a 5% upside or short TLRY20250822P1 if $0.95 breaks.