TLRY Plummets 5.8% Amid Cannabis Sector Volatility: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Tilray Brands (TLRY) drops 5.8% to $9.56, hitting a 52-week low of $9.53
• Sector leader Canopy Growth (CGC) falls 6.87%, amplifying cannabis market jitters
• Options data reveals 74.78% implied volatility at $9.5 put, signaling aggressive bearish bets

Tilray Brands faces a sharp intraday selloff amid a broader cannabis sector correction. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and a -860.76x P/E ratio, the move reflects growing concerns over regulatory headwinds and Trump's looming tariff threats. The sector's mixed performance—driven by CGC's -6.87% decline—highlights the fragility of cannabis stocks in a post-rescheduling environment.

Trump's Tariff Threats and Sector Jitters Spark TLRY Selloff
The sharp decline in TLRY follows President Trump's warning to escalate pharmaceutical tariffs to 250% within 18 months, per Pharmaletter. This threatens cannabis companies' access to critical APIs and research funding. Options data reveals a 74.78% implied volatility ratio at the $9.5 put, indicating aggressive bearish positioning. The stock's -5.8% drop aligns with sector-wide jitters as investors reassess the long-term viability of cannabis research funding and banking access post-rescheduling.

Cannabis Sector Mixed as CGC Leads Downward Spiral
Tilray's -5.8% decline mirrors broader cannabis sector weakness, with sector leader Canopy Growth (CGC) falling -6.87%. The Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) lags at -1.63%, while the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO) rallies 1.48%. This divergence reflects divergent investor sentiment between traditional growers (TLRY/CGC) and ancillary tech plays (YOLO). The sector's -3.78% turnover rate suggests liquidity constraints amid heightened volatility.

Bearish Options Playbook: Puts at $9.5 Strike Show Strong Theta/Gamma Profile
• 200-day average: $1.61 (far below current $9.56)
• RSI: 60.88 (neutral territory)
• MACD: 2.29 (bullish) vs. 2.38 signal line (bearish crossover forming)
• Bollinger Bands: $0.71 (lower) to $16.13 (upper) – current price near 12% of range

Key technical levels: 30D MA at $5.96 (bearish divergence), 200D MA at $1.61 (critical support). The stock faces immediate resistance at $10.11 (intraday high) and support at $9.53 (52W low). With 3.78% turnover and -5.8% price action, short-term bearish momentum is intact. The Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) at -1.63% offers sector exposure but lacks leverage.

Top Options:
• TLRY20260102P9.5 - Put option, strike $9.50, expires 2026-01-02
• IV: 78.29% (high volatility) – indicates elevated market uncertainty
• LVR: 23.94% (moderate leverage) – amplifies returns on price declines
• Delta: -0.4468 (sensitive to price moves) – reacts strongly to downward trends
• Theta: -0.003155 (slow time decay) – retains value over time
• Gamma: 0.3563 (high sensitivity) – accelerates payoff as price drops
• Turnover: 9,279 (liquid) – ensures easy entry/exit
• Payoff: $0.03/share if price drops to $9.15 (5% downside) – optimal risk/reward ratio
• This put offers high gamma and moderate leverage for a 5% bearish move

• TLRY20260102P9 - Put option, strike $9.00, expires 2026-01-02
• IV: 76.40% (high volatility) – reflects aggressive bearish positioning
• LVR: 50.39% (strong leverage) – maximizes returns on price declines
• Delta: -0.2702 (moderate sensitivity) – balances responsiveness and stability
• Theta: -0.007982 (moderate time decay) – decays at a manageable rate
• Gamma: 0.3054 (good sensitivity) – enhances payoff as price drops
• Turnover: 43,304 (high liquidity) – ensures robust trading activity
• Payoff: $0.63/share if price drops to $9.15 (5% downside) – ideal for aggressive short-term bearish bets
• This put provides maximum leverage with 50.39% potential return on a 5% move

If $9.50 breaks, consider rolling into the $9.00 put for amplified exposure.

Backtest Tilray Brands Stock Performance
The performance of TLRY after a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to now has shown mixed results. While the stock has the potential for a short-term recovery due to its volatility, long-term gains have been more modest. 1. Short-Term Recovery Potential: The backtest indicates that TLRY has a good chance of recovering from a significant drop in the short term. This is supported by the stock's historical volatility and the market's tendency to mean-revert in the short term.2. Long-Term Modest Gains: However, the long-term performance of TLRY has been more muted. This suggests that while the stock may bounce back from a significant sell-off, its overall growth over extended periods is expected to be moderate.In conclusion, TLRY is likely to show short-term volatility but may deliver modest long-term returns based on the backtest analysis. Investors should consider these factors when assessing the stock's potential for the future.

TLRY Faces Critical Support Test: Watch for $9.50 Breakdown
Tilray's -5.8% drop signals growing bearish conviction as Trump's tariff threats overshadow cannabis rescheduling optimism. The stock's 52-week low test at $9.53 and -860.76x P/E ratio highlight structural weaknesses. Sector leader Canopy Growth (CGC) at -6.87% reinforces the bearish narrative. Investors should monitor the $9.50 support level—breakdown here could trigger a 20% correction. Aggressive short-sellers should target the TLRY20260102P9.5 put for 23.94% potential returns. Watch for Trump's tariff timeline and January 8 earnings report for catalysts.