TikTok's fate in the U.S. may be about to reach a critical juncture.

According to the schedule, at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on January 10, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on whether the sell or ban order against TikTok violates the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

The two sides in the oral argument are TikTok and the U.S. Department of Justice, with TikTok having the opportunity to make its final defense before the Supreme Court.

Last April, the U.S. Congress, citing so-called national security concerns, passed a law requiring ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, to divest the app, or else it would be banned from entering U.S. mobile app stores and web hosting platforms. TikTok subsequently sued the U.S. Department of Justice, arguing that the sell or ban order contravenes the U.S. Constitution's protection of freedom of speech. However, last month, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the ban.

This prompted TikTok to ultimately bring the case to the Supreme Court. On December 18, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that it would again discuss the bill banning TikTok from operating in the U.S., with the relevant debate scheduled for January 10.

TikTok's lawyers had previously urged the Supreme Court to overturn the impending ban, citing that it would stifle the free speech of over 170 million American users on the platform.

In response to the "security threat"claims, TikTok also refuted them by stating that its content recommendation engine and user data are stored on cloud servers operated by Oracle in the U.S., and content moderation decisions affecting American users are made in the U.S. The U.S. government's security concerns are too vague and speculative to justify the infringement of its rights.

It is worth noting that just before the Supreme Court is about to make a final ruling, the American consortium's attempt to acquire TikTok under coercion still persists.

Frank McCourt, an American real estate tycoon, and his internet advocacy group Project Libert, along with their partners in The People's Bid consortium, announced on Thursday that they have submitted a proposal to ByteDance to acquire TikTok's U.S. assets. They hope to restructure the business into a platform owned by Americans, with a priority on user data security.

However, ByteDance has previously made it clear on multiple occasions that it will not sell TikTok.

From the current situation, the final ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court will likely bring one of three outcomes: TikTok wins the lawsuit, so TikTok is spared from being banned in the U.S.; The Supreme Court rules to delay enforcement, which may postpone the case until Trump takes office to be decided; TikTok loses the lawsuit. TikTok is sold or banned the day before Trump takes office (January 19).

A variable in TikTok's fate at present may still be whether Trump's request to the U.S. Supreme Court will take effect. Last month, Trump asked the Supreme Court to suspend the TikTok forced sale order, stating that he hopes the court will give him time to resolve the issue through political means after he officially takes office on January 20 next year.

Trump said at the time that the Supreme Court should allow an extension of time, otherwise it would weaken his ability to implement foreign policy after taking office. He also expressed concern about the impact on TikTok users and the possibility of setting a dangerous precedent for internet regulation.

So, if TikTok is unfortunately banned on January 19, will American users still be able to use TikTok?

Legal experts say that the sell or ban order does not actually completely prohibit the use of TikTok, but requires Apple and Google to remove TikTok from their app stores before January 19. Those who have not yet installed TikTok on their phones or tablets will not be able to download it from these app stores. The bill also prohibits U.S. internet hosting services and data storage providers from supporting the application.

Therefore, the TikTok app may not suddenly disappear from Americans' phones and tablets. The installed app may still be usable in the short term, but it is expected to gradually wither away as its functions are lost, because once it is removed from the Apple and Google app stores, ByteDance will not be able to arrange software updates through common channels.

At the same time, if the Supreme Court allows the ban to take effect as planned, Trump's options to change TikTok's fate in the U.S. will be limited. Trump could refuse to enforce the ban, or push Congress to pass new legislation to repeal the ban. However, even with Trump's assurance, if the law remains in effect, there is still a risk for Google and Apple to re-list TikTok. The widespread support in Congress for the ban also makes legislative resolution highly unlikely.