Thyssenkrupp Nucera: The Sales Shock Was Priced In, But the Profit Reset Wasn't

The core event was a stark guidance reset. In late November, electrolyser maker Thyssenkrupp Nucera slashed its 2026 sales forecast to €500 million to €600 million, a potential drop of as much as 41% from the prior year's €845 million. This was a direct admission that the green hydrogen market had become "even more challenging," with investors delaying final investment decisions.

The market's reaction suggests this specific shock was largely anticipated. Shares had already fallen roughly 80 percentage points this year compared to peers, a brutal underperformance that had begun months earlier. This deep discount meant the stock was priced for a significant downturn. When the guidance cut was announced, the initial sell-off was contained, with shares down just 5.5% on the news. The expectation gap had already closed on the top line.

Analyst consensus had been moving in the same direction. Before the company's warning, the average revenue forecast for 2026 was €770 million. After the cut, that estimate was revised down to €690 million, a 25% decline. The stock's muted reaction points to a market that had already baked in a severe sales contraction. In fact, the brokerage firm Goldman Sachs noted that the guidance update aligned market expectations with a "more realistic outlook" after months of sentiment pressure, leading to an upgrade to "neutral" as the shock was absorbed. The sales shock, in other words, was priced in.

The Profitability Gap: The New Expectation Gap

The sales shock was priced in. The profit reset was not. This is the new expectation gap.

On the surface, the numbers tell a story of severe contraction. The company's 2025/2026 EBIT target remains stable at €2 million, at the top of its range. That suggests aggressive cost management is holding the line on operating profit. Yet the new EPS estimates tell a different tale. Analysts now project statutory earnings per share of €0.086 for 2026, a 32% plunge from the prior year's €0.17. This disconnect points to significant non-operational or one-time charges now being factored into the bottom line.

The guidance update itself hints at this. The company expects operating profit to range from a loss of up to €30 million to break-even in 2026, a stark contrast to the €2 million profit in 2025. This massive swing implies the €2 million EBIT target is being achieved through disciplined operations, while the reported EPS is being dragged down by other factors-likely financing costs, restructuring, or asset impairments. In other words, the market is being told that the core business is holding up, but the financial statements are being pressured by external accounting items.

The setup creates a potential lag between revenue and earnings recovery. Management points to a temporary decline in sales with order intake expected to increase. This is classic expectation arbitrage territory. The market has priced in the sales collapse. The next move hinges on whether the order book rebuild can translate into revenue and, crucially, whether the non-operational charges are truly one-time. If the cost management holds and the order intake surge materializes, the EPS could rebound faster than the revenue line, closing the gap. But if the accounting pressures persist, the stock may remain stuck in a "sell the news" loop even as the underlying business stabilizes.

Catalysts and Risks: What's Left to Price

With the sales shock absorbed, the stock's next move hinges on a series of near-term catalysts that will test the new, lower expectations. The immediate focus is on the final 2024/2025 results, due on December 17. These figures will provide the last official data point before the guidance reset, offering a final check on the company's performance in a "challenging market environment." While the full-year numbers are likely already reflected in the stock's deep discount, any deviation from the already-weak 2025/2026 outlook could trigger another round of reassessment.

The first full-year 2026 results will be the true test. They will show whether the company can deliver on its promise of a temporary decline in sales while holding the line on operations. The market will be watching for two things: first, confirmation that the order intake is indeed increasing as management suggests, and second, whether the reported EPS is pressured by the same non-operational charges that caused the 32% plunge in estimates. If the order book rebuilds and the accounting pressures prove one-time, the stock could see a relief rally. If not, the expectation gap may widen.

The primary risk is that project delays and market challenges persist, forcing further cuts to the already-downgraded 2026 outlook. The company itself warns of flagging sales in the year ahead due to a lack of orders from H2 project developers. This is the core execution risk. The guidance reset was a response to this reality, but if the order pipeline remains dry, the company may have to reset its targets again. This would be a classic "sell the news" dynamic in reverse: the stock had sold off on the initial shock, but if the fundamental weakness proves deeper, it could fall further on subsequent disappointment.

In essence, the valuation now sits at a reset point. The catalysts are clear, but the path is narrow. The stock needs to see the order intake surge materialize and the accounting pressures resolve to find a new equilibrium. Any stumble on these fronts would likely keep the shares under pressure, as the market's patience for further guidance resets is thin.