Thyssenkrupp Nucera: A Hidden Gem in Green Hydrogen’s Surge – Buy Now Before the Crowd Catches On

The recent 10% plunge in thyssenkrupp nucera’s shares to €9.18 over the past week presents a rare buying opportunity. Beneath the noise of short-term volatility lies a company positioned at the heart of the global green hydrogen revolution, with Q2 results underscoring its 31% YoY revenue surge and a 70% reduction in net losses. Analysts are missing the forest for the trees: this stock is a textbook case of short-term mispricing against long-term structural tailwinds in decarbonization.

The Q2 Results: A Catalyst Ignored by the Market

Thyssenkrupp nucera reported €216 million in Q2 revenue, a 31% YoY jump, driven by soaring demand for its electrolysis technologies in green hydrogen and chlor-alkali applications. The net loss narrowed to €3 million from €10 million a year earlier—a 70% improvement—as cost discipline and higher sales volumes took hold.

The chlor-alkali segment, which supplies essential chemicals for industries like paper and plastics, delivered a 42% revenue surge, while green hydrogen sales rose 23%, fueled by projects in Saudi Arabia and Sweden. Yet, the stock’s drop ignores these fundamentals. Why?

Analysts Are Underestimating the Green Hydrogen Opportunity

The consensus price target of €13.70 (vs. current €9.18) reflects a narrow focus on near-term risks, such as a 50% decline in green hydrogen order backlog to €0.4 billion. But this misses two critical points:

1. Structural Demand Growth: The European Union’s REPowerEU plan aims for 40 GW of green hydrogen capacity by 2030, while global green hydrogen investment is projected to hit $1.2 trillion by 2050. Thyssenkrupp nucera’s alkaline electrolysis technology is a cornerstone of this transition, with projects like Saudi Arabia’s NEOM and Oman’s Qalhat on track to drive future revenue.

2. Undervalued Growth Outlook: Analysts’ 4% average annual revenue growth for the European construction sector pales against thyssenkrupp nucera’s 7.5% annual growth forecast. The company’s €850–950 million sales target for FY2024/25—up 29% YoY—hints at a moat in a sector where few firms can scale green hydrogen solutions profitably.

Addressing the Risks: Why the Backlog Decline Isn’t a Death Sentence

Critics point to the €4 million Q2 green hydrogen order intake (down from €12 million in 2023) and the U.S. regulatory threat of repealed tax credits. But:
- Order Backlog Volatility is Cyclical: Thyssenkrupp nucera’s backlog is tied to multiyear projects (e.g., Sweden’s Stegra, Saudi Arabia’s NEOM). The dip reflects delayed project approvals in the U.S., not a lack of demand. €400 million in existing orders still provide runway for execution.
- Geographic Diversification Shields: While the U.S. market faces regulatory headwinds, Europe and the Middle East are open for business. The €9 billion Middle Eastern hydrogen market alone could offset U.S. risks.

The Case for a Buy: Valuation and ESG Alpha

At €9.18, the stock trades at a 23% discount to its consensus target, with a P/S ratio of 1.2x—far below peers like Bloom Energy (3.5x). Meanwhile, ESG investors are waking up to the $1.2 trillion opportunity in green hydrogen.

Why Now?
- Undiscounted Long-Term Growth: The stock’s slump ignores its 29% YoY revenue growth and the €6 million net profit in the first half of 2024/25—a turnaround from a €7 million loss in 2023.
- Debt-Free Flexibility: With €4.4 billion in net cash (via its parent thyssenkrupp), the firm can invest in R&D (€8 million in Q2 alone) without dilution.

Conclusion: Buy Thyssenkrupp Nucera – ESG Tech at a Bargain

The market is pricing in short-term risks while ignoring the €13.70 consensus target and the $1.2 trillion green hydrogen boom. For investors seeking ESG-aligned, underappreciated industrial tech, this is a buy at €9.18.

Risks: U.S. policy shifts, project delays, and execution risks. But: The 7.5% annual revenue growth, €400 million order backlog, and European/Middle Eastern tailwinds make this a bet on a decade-long structural shift—not a fleeting trend.

Action: Buy now. The crowd will catch on once the world fully realizes: green hydrogen isn’t just a trend—it’s a trillion-dollar revolution. And thyssenkrupp Nucera is leading the charge.