Thunderbolts Soars on Strong International Debut, But Can Disney Keep the Momentum?

The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s latest entry, Thunderbolts, has kicked off its global box office run with a mixed but intriguing performance, offering both optimism and caution for investors in Disney’s entertainment empire. The film’s domestic debut of $76 million in the U.S. and Canada underwhelmed compared to past flagships like Captain America: Brave New World ($192 million global opening in February), but its $86.1 million international haul—driven by strong showings in Latin America, Asia, and Europe—has positioned it as a mid-tier Marvel success. The question now is whether this opening is enough to justify its hefty $280 million total spend (including a $180 million production budget and $100 million marketing push) or if Disney’s bet on lesser-known characters like Yelena Belova and Bucky Barnes will pay off long-term.

The International Edge—and the China Dilemma

The film’s $86.1 million international opening, drawn from 52 markets, outperformed comparisons to earlier Marvel films like Shang-Chi (45% higher in like-for-like markets) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (13% above). Key markets such as Mexico ($7.3M), Brazil ($4M), and the U.K. ($7.7M) delivered robust returns, while smaller Asian markets (excluding China) also showed promise. However, China’s underperformance—where the film grossed just $10.4 million—raised eyebrows. Analysts note the release timing, scheduled on a non-traditional Wednesday, and competition from local hits like The Wandering Earth 2 likely diluted its impact.

This is a critical blind spot for Disney. China accounts for roughly 25% of global box office revenue, and its audience’s lukewarm reception could limit Thunderbolts’ ability to hit the $500 million global total needed to break even.

The Financial Tightrope

To recoup its $280 million investment, Thunderbolts must not only exceed $500 million globally but also capitalize on ancillary revenue streams like streaming (via Disney+) and merchandise. Its strong audience score (A- CinemaScore) and 94% Rotten Tomatoes audience rating—the third-highest in MCU history—suggest it has the legs to do so.

However, past Marvel films like Eternals ($71M domestic debut, $1.18B global total) and The Marvels ($73M domestic, $653M global) demonstrate that even mid-tier openings can scale into profitability with sustained word-of-mouth. Thunderbolts’ 88% critic score and 4.5/5-star PostTrak exit polls place it in this category.

The Bigger Picture: Marvel’s Summer Slate

Thunderbolts’ performance matters not just for itself but for Disney’s broader strategy. The film is the first major release in a summer packed with Marvel titles, including Lilo & Stitch: The Break (July) and Jurassic World: Rebirth (August). A strong Thunderbolts could reinvigorate audience excitement after recent underperformers like Deadpool: The Merc with a Mouth and X-Men: Dark Phoenix Rising.

Yet investors should remain cautious. The $76 million domestic opening—lower than the $120 million analysts had projected—hints at domestic fatigue. Meanwhile, competing blockbusters like A Minecraft Movie ($26.6M international) and Sinners ($10.4M global addition) continue to dominate North American charts, suggesting Thunderbolts may struggle to maintain top-tier grosses.

Conclusion: A Solid Start, but No Guarantee

Thunderbolts has delivered a $162.1 million global opening that balances ambition with pragmatism. Its international dominance and audience enthusiasm suggest it could reach $600–$700 million globally, potentially turning a modest profit. However, its reliance on post-release revenue and China’s tepid response underscore risks.

For Disney shareholders, the film’s success hinges on two factors: long-term box office playability (aided by strong reviews) and China’s eventual uptake (Disney has historically struggled there with antihero-centric films). If Thunderbolts can replicate Shang-Chi’s $224M global total, it will prove that Marvel’s lesser-known characters can still draw crowds. But if it falters, Disney’s entertainment division—already grappling with rising production costs and declining theatrical attendance—may need to rethink its formula.

In the end, Thunderbolts is more than a movie; it’s a test of whether the MCU’s next phase can thrive without its A-list stars. For now, the results are cautiously optimistic—but the final score won’t be in until the credits roll in theaters worldwide.