Threshold/USDC Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum Shifts

Summary
• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) oscillated between 0.01165 and 0.01208, with a 0.01190 close after mixed candlestick patterns.
• Strong volume surges at key inflection points suggest active accumulation and distribution.
• RSI remains neutral, but MACD divergence hints at shifting momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, signaling potential for a breakout.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight 0.01173 and 0.01196 as key near-term levels.

Threshold/USDC traded within a 24-hour range of 0.01165 to 0.01208, closing at 0.01190 from an opening of 0.01181 at 12:00 ET−1. Total volume reached 83.2M USDC, with turnover estimated at $996,000. The pair showed increased volatility amid mixed candlestick formations, suggesting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

Structure & Formations

TUSDC exhibited a mix of bullish and bearish signals over the last 24 hours. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.01202, followed by a doji star near 0.01195, indicating indecision. Support levels at 0.01173 and 0.01169 showed firm buying, while resistance at 0.01196 and 0.01203 saw repeated tests. These levels could act as pivots for future direction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, TUSDC closed slightly above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, indicating a longer-term bearish tilt, though the 20-period MA at 0.01186 may provide near-term support.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover around 0.01192, with the histogram shrinking as bulls regained control late in the session. RSI remained in the 50–60 range, neutral territory, with no clear overbought or oversold signals. However, a divergence between price and RSI around 0.01187 could suggest a potential reversal in the coming 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Price action showed a tightening of Bollinger Bands around 0.01188–0.01192 as the session progressed, signaling a potential breakout. Late in the session, TUSDC closed near the upper band at 0.01203, indicating heightened bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked heavily during the 0530–0600 ET timeframe, with over 8.7M USDC traded at 0.01187, followed by a bearish close at 0.01172. Later, volume surged again at 1515–1600 ET as the pair pushed above 0.012. Notional turnover aligned with price direction, confirming momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute move from 0.01173 to 0.01203, the 38.2% retracement level at 0.01187 and 61.8% at 0.01196 are currently critical. Daily swings between 0.01169 and 0.01201 also show retracements at 0.01187 and 0.01196 as key support and resistance zones.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the predictive power of candlestick patterns, we can focus on "Doji Star" formations in the TUSDC pair. By identifying all such occurrences in the historical data, we can assess whether a doji appearing at key Fibonacci levels or trend exhaustion points correlates with a defined average return over the following 48 hours. This strategy requires confirming the correct ticker symbol (e.g., TUSDC.UDC or similar) to execute an accurate backtest. Given the recent doji at 0.01195 and its alignment with 61.8% Fibonacci, it could serve as a test case.