Threshold/USDC Market Overview: Volatility Expands Amidst Low Volume

Summary
• Price surged to $0.01376 before retracting to $0.01269 amid low early-day volume.
• MACD and RSI suggest overbought conditions developed mid-day.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion as price tested key levels repeatedly.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01262 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.01376 and falling to a low of $0.01269, closing at $0.01269 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET. The total trading volume for the 24-hour window was 2,363,199.9 units, with a total turnover of $31,775.81.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed two key price expansions: a sharp rally from $0.01302 to $0.01376, followed by a pullback to $0.01269. A large bullish candle from $0.01302 to $0.01376 was succeeded by a long bearish candle closing at $0.01269, hinting at a potential reversal or exhaustion. The price appears to have found support in the $0.01269–$0.01278 range and resistance at $0.01302–$0.01316.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned, both trending upward as price surged mid-day. The 50-period line appears to have acted as a dynamic support, with price testing and bouncing off it multiple times.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bullish crossover and positive divergence mid-day, aligning with the price breakout. RSI surged into overbought territory, reaching 70–75, suggesting the rally may have lost momentum toward the end of the session. Price is now consolidating, and RSI has fallen below 50, which could indicate bearish pressure has resumed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout phase, with price reaching the upper band at $0.01376. After the reversal, price remained within the bands but has not tested the lower boundary yet. A potential pullback to the lower band could offer a buying opportunity, depending on volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout at $0.01376, with a 15-minute bar showing 888,980.6 units traded. This was followed by a significant drop-off in activity, despite the sharp decline in price. This volume divergence raises concerns about conviction in the downward move. Turnover was highest during the $0.01302–$0.01376 rally, with the subsequent decline occurring on lower liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the $0.01269–$0.01376 swing, price retested the 61.8% level at $0.01324 before pulling back. The 38.2% retracement at $0.01303 also acted as a minor resistance. A move below $0.01278 would trigger the 23.6% level at $0.01289, which may offer short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described is based on RSI overbought conditions. Given the TUSDC price data and its RSI reaching 70–75 during the rally, a potential backtesting approach would be to open short positions when RSI ≥ 70 and exit when it falls below 30 or after a fixed time window. This aligns with the observed price action on 2025-11-10, where the sharp move up was followed by a rapid correction. The low volume during the correction also supports the idea that the rally lacked sufficient support.