Threshold/USDC Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Move Amid Diverging Volume

Summary
• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01203 and traded between $0.01173 and $0.01218.
• A strong sell-off occurred at 16:00 ET, with price falling to $0.0118 on high volume.
• Price consolidated near $0.01174–$0.0118 in the final hours, forming a potential support zone.
• Volume spiked sharply during the 16:00 ET candle, suggesting increased bearish momentum.
• Turnover and volume aligned with key price drops, confirming bearish sentiment.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01203 (12:00 ET – 1), rose to a high of $0.01218, fell to a low of $0.01173, and closed at $0.01174 (12:00 ET). Total volume reached 423,382.9 units, with turnover amounting to $5,098.17 during the 24-hour period. The price action suggests a volatile, bearish session marked by a large-volume sell-off late in the cycle.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure over the 24-hour period displayed a sharp bearish breakout around 16:00 ET, marked by a long bearish candle that gapped down from $0.01196 to close at $0.01173. A key support level appears to have formed near $0.01174–$0.0118, where the price has found some short-term buyers. Earlier in the session, a small bullish rally pushed price toward $0.01218, forming a potential resistance area in that range. A doji formed around $0.01205, indicating indecision during the price reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show price below both, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line in the afternoon, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the price closed below all key moving averages (50, 100, 200), reinforcing bearish sentiment and suggesting that the overall trend remains down.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12, 26, 9) showed a bearish crossover in the late afternoon, with the histogram declining sharply during the sell-off phase. This confirms the bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 during the 16:00 ET candle, indicating an oversold condition, though a bounce back is yet to materialize. The RSI is currently hovering near 30, suggesting price may consolidate in the short term before a potential rebound or continued sell-off.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off at 16:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands widening and the price closing near the lower band. This indicates heightened selling pressure and a possible overreaction in the short term. Earlier in the session, the price traded near the upper band, suggesting it was in overbought territory. The current position near the lower band could signal a potential short-term reversal, although a sustained rebound would require confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 16:00 ET candle, with over 340,694.5 units traded—accounting for nearly 80% of total 24-hour volume. This suggests strong bearish conviction during that period. Turnover also surged in line with the price drop, confirming that the move was not a false breakdown. The absence of significant volume in the preceding hours indicates a lack of bullish participation, further supporting the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from $0.01218 to $0.01173, price closed near the 78.6% retracement level. This suggests a potential area for short-term consolidation. On the daily chart, the move from the prior high to the current low places the close near the 61.8% retracement level, indicating a critical support area to watch for further bearish movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand potential short-term price signals, a backtest could be conducted using the Hammer candlestick pattern. This pattern often indicates a reversal and may have been present during the 15-minute candle at 16:00 ET, where price closed near the session low on strong volume. A backtest of Hammer signals from 2022 to 2025—once the correct symbol and timeframe are confirmed—would help evaluate the predictive power of such patterns in TUSDC trading.