Threshold/USDC Market Overview for October 29, 2025

• Threshold/USDC traded in a tight range for much of the 24-hour period, but saw a late decline to 0.01281.
• A key breakout attempt at 0.01293 failed, with price retreating and consolidating below 0.01286.
• Volume surged over 71,000 in the 22:45–23:00 ET hour, highlighting renewed interest in the lower range.
• RSI hovered near neutral, but price failed to close above prior support levels, signaling bearish exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during inactivity before the price dipped below the lower band at the end of the session.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01312 on October 28 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.01312, and closed at 0.01281 as of October 29 at 12:00 ET. The price action reflected a bearish trend with notable consolidation periods and a final drop near the session's close. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 253,836.4, with a notional turnover of around $3.24 (calculated using the closing prices and volumes at each interval).

Structure & Formations

Price remained range-bound for much of the session, failing to break above 0.01293 or below 0.0128. A significant breakdown occurred during the 22:45–23:00 ET hour, with the price falling from 0.01287 to 0.01283. A Bearish Engulfing pattern formed at 20:30–20:45 ET as price opened at 0.0128 and closed at 0.01293 after a high of 0.01293. This suggests bearish momentum. A key support level appears to have been tested at 0.01281 and held, while resistance remains at 0.01293.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned, indicating a flat trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is slightly above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a slight bearish bias, but the trend remains undefined.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover during the breakdown phase at 22:45 ET, with the line dipping below the signal line. RSI remained in the neutral range for most of the session but dipped below 40 in the final hours, suggesting oversold conditions. However, price did not rebound from this level, indicating weak follow-through.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted during the late afternoon and evening hours, indicating low volatility. However, as the price fell sharply in the last 2 hours of the session, it closed below the lower band at 0.01281. This suggests potential bearish continuation or a possible bounce from the lower band in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the 22:45–23:00 ET hour at over 71,000, aligning with the breakdown below 0.01286. This volume surge confirmed the price move downward. Turnover remained relatively stable until the final hour, with a noticeable increase in the final 2 hours. No significant divergences were observed between volume and price, suggesting the breakdown is supported by underlying bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the swing high at 0.01312 and the swing low at 0.0128, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.01295, which was tested and failed during the 19:30–19:45 ET hour. The 38.2% retracement level at 0.01298 also showed rejection. A break below 0.0128 would target the 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish move at 0.01275.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the bearish bias observed in recent candlestick patterns, a backtest could be constructed based on a shorting strategy triggered by the Bearish Engulfing pattern. For example, using Threshold/USDC (TUSDC), a short trade could be initiated when a Bearish Engulfing pattern appears, with a fixed stop-loss and take-profit. Alternatively, an event study could measure average price movements following the pattern’s appearance without engaging in actual trading. Given the low volatility and high volume seen during such patterns, these could offer insights into whether such setups reliably predict bearish moves in TUSDC.