Threshold/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) closed 0.24 % lower after a sharp selloff mid-day.
• Volume spiked to 2.3M during the 18:15–19:30 ET bearish reversal phase.
• RSI approached oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term bounce.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) traded between 0.01151 and 0.01224 over the past 24 hours, opening at 0.01224 (12:00 ET–1) and closing at 0.01164 (12:00 ET). Total volume reached 2,498,328.9 USDC, with a notional turnover of ~$30,217, calculated using the average TUSDC price over the period. The pair is showing increasing volatility and signs of a potential short-term bottoming process.

Structure & Formations
TUSDC exhibited a bearish engulfing pattern during the 18:15–19:00 ET window, suggesting a short-term reversal after a strong bullish move from 0.0122–0.01224. A key support level appears to be forming at 0.01164–0.01171, as the price has bounced from this area three times over the past 12 hours. A breakout above 0.01202 could indicate renewed buyer interest and a return to the 0.0122–0.01224 resistance zone.

Moving Averages
The 20-period (15-min) moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period line is slightly above the 100-period and well above the 200-period line, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend. However, the recent 15-minute MA crossover may signal a pullback or consolidation before a potential resumption of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI
The MACD line dipped into negative territory with a narrowing histogram, indicating decreasing bearish momentum. RSI approached the 30-level (~32 at 05:15 ET), suggesting the price may find a near-term floor. While the RSI hints at potential oversold conditions, the MACD suggests caution, as momentum remains subdued and lacks a clear bullish signal to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands
Price action recently reached the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a period of low volatility and possible oversold conditions. The bands themselves have been narrowing throughout the session, which may precede a breakout. If the price breaks above the upper band at ~0.01202–0.01206, it could signal a return to higher volatility and buyer dominance.

Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked to 2,309,447.4 at 04:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop to 0.01151. This was the largest single-candle volume event and occurred at the session low, suggesting a possible bottoming attempt. However, price failed to recover above the 0.01171–0.01175 range, highlighting bearish control. Turnover and price moved in the same direction, confirming the bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements
A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with the current support at 0.01164–0.01171, suggesting a potential reversal area. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.01175–0.0118, where the price held briefly before resuming its decline. A break above 0.01186 (38.2% of the prior bearish swing) could indicate a short-term bounce or a continuation of the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the “Bearish Engulfing” pattern on TUSDC from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-14 revealed mixed performance, with a total return of -18.9% and a Sharpe ratio of just 0.09, indicating poor risk-adjusted returns. The strategy performed poorly in a high-volatility and bearish environment, reinforcing the need for additional filters such as volume spikes or moving average confirmations. Future tests should explore incorporating explicit exit rules or combining signals to improve robustness.