Threshold/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) traded in a tight range for most of the 24 hours, with a bearish bias in the second half.
• Key support around 0.01244 and resistance at 0.01271 were tested multiple times, with mixed follow-through.
• Volume surged after 19:00 ET on the prior day but faded in the final hours, suggesting waning conviction.
• RSI and MACD show neutral to bearish momentum, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions.
• Price remains within a descending Bollinger Band, signaling low volatility and consolidation.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01292 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01276 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of 0.01299 and a low of 0.01224 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 347,990.9 units, with notional turnover of $4,371.49. The market appears to be consolidating amid light volume and moderate price swings.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key resistance at 0.01271 and support at 0.01244 repeatedly but failed to decisively break through either. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00 ET, followed by a series of doji candles near 0.01244, indicating indecision. The range-bound action suggests traders are waiting for a clear catalyst or higher-volume breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price hovered below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, confirming a weak bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are converging slightly, but no strong directional signal is apparent. The asset remains in a shallow downtrend with limited momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed a bearish crossover with the signal line in the latter half of the session, reinforcing the bearish trend. RSI remained in the mid-range (40–50), indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Price may remain directionless until a clear breakout or divergence emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent much of the period in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, signaling low volatility and cautious sentiment. The bands themselves have been narrowing slightly in the last 6 hours, which could precede a breakout or significant price movement in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked after 19:00 ET, reaching a peak of ~47,696 units, but then dropped sharply in the last 6 hours of the session. This suggests fading interest. Notional turnover was highest during the sharp decline from 0.0127 to 0.01248, confirming the bearish move. However, the lack of follow-through volume above key levels raises questions about short-term conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent swings from 0.01244 to 0.01271 show 38.2% retracement levels near 0.01256 and 61.8% near 0.01263. These levels were tested during the session, with 0.01263 seeing some rejection. Price appears to have found initial support at the 0.01246 level, with a potential test of 0.01241 expected if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the technical signals observed—particularly the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI neutrality—could serve as a foundation for a simple backtesting strategy. The idea would be to open a short position at the close of a bearish engulfing pattern and close it at the next day's close. Given TUSDC’s behavior today, a strategy focused on shorting after key bearish reversal patterns may offer consistent returns, though it would need further refinement to include stop-loss and risk controls.