Threshold/USDC Market Overview

• Price fell from 0.01611 to 0.01554, closing at 0.01554 after a 24-hour range.
• RSI dropped below 40, signaling weakening momentum and possible oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded as TUSDC traded through a 0.0158–0.0161 range, then consolidated lower.
• Volume surged during the downtrend, particularly on the 15-minute chart after 19:30 ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the 0.0160–0.0161 resistance level.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01582 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 0.01611 before closing at 0.01554 as of October 4 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 10,687,329.8, and notional turnover amounted to $162,544.94. The pair experienced a bearish reversal after forming a bearish engulfing pattern near 0.01603 and saw a sharp sell-off into late evening trading.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed multiple resistance levels between 0.0160 and 0.0161 that repeatedly failed to hold, culminating in a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.01603. This pattern, along with a long upper wick near 0.01611, signaled a potential reversal. Key support levels were confirmed at 0.01582 and 0.01575–0.01578, with the latter showing a short-term bounce in the early morning hours.

Moving Averages

TUSDC closed below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price is below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a longer-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped below 40, entering oversold territory, while the MACD histogram showed a consistent bearish divergence, with momentum fading relative to price. This divergence suggests potential for a short-term bounce but does not confirm a reversal. A move above 0.01585 would need a strong close to rekindle bullish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply as TUSDC broke through the upper Bollinger Band at 0.01611, only to collapse back into the lower band by the end of the 24-hour period. This contraction in the bands’ width after the initial break suggests a possible exhaustion of the selling pressure, though further confirmation is needed.

Volume & Turnover
Trading volume spiked after 19:30 ET, peaking at 314,446.1 for the candle ending at 17:15 ET, followed by continued outflows through the night. Notional turnover also rose during this time, aligning with the price drop and suggesting strong bearish conviction. The divergence between volume and price action in the final hours, however, indicates some short-covering or profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.01594 and the 61.8% level at 0.01582 acted as key support levels. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from the recent low-to-high swing sits at 0.01584 and may provide near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern near key resistance levels, using a 15-minute chart. Stop-losses could be placed above the upper Bollinger Band or 0.01603, with take-profit targets at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This approach could be tested for effectiveness during similar market conditions, particularly when RSI is declining and MACD shows bearish divergence.