Threshold/USDC Market Overview: 24-Hour Volatility and Mixed Momentum

• Price traded between $0.01474 and $0.01554, with a 24-hour close near the upper end of the range at $0.01481.
• Momentum indicators show overbought and oversold swings, with RSI cycling between 60–80 and 30–40.
• Volume spiked during sharp downward moves, suggesting increased selling pressure in the final hours.
• A Bullish Engulfing pattern emerged early, followed by a Bearish Dark Cloud Cover, highlighting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
• Volatility increased significantly after 15:00 ET, with price breaching a key 0.01500 support level, now acting as a resistance.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01502, reached a high of $0.01554, dipped to a low of $0.01474, and closed at $0.01481. Total 24-hour trading volume reached 2.7 million tokens, with notional turnover of $42.8 million, reflecting heightened activity during price swings.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours displayed a volatile tug-of-war between bullish and bearish momentum. Key support levels identified include $0.01496 (61.8% Fib from the 10:15–15:45 ET swing) and $0.01500 (psychological round number). A Bearish Dark Cloud Cover formed on the 15:30–16:00 ET candle, confirming bearish exhaustion. Earlier, a Bullish Engulfing pattern at 16:00–16:15 ET hinted at a brief rebound. The $0.01500 level appears to be a critical area, as it acted as both support and resistance in alternating cycles.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period MA at $0.01528 and the 50-period MA at $0.01530, with the price closing below both, indicating bearish bias on shorter timeframes. MACD (12, 26, 9) crossed below the zero line around 15:15 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI hit 82 at 15:30 ET and dropped to 34 by 16:00 ET, signaling overbought to oversold exhaustion. The 50/100/200 daily MA lines are not available, but the trend appears to be consolidating after the recent downswing.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply after 15:00 ET, with the Bollinger Band width increasing by ~12%. Price briefly breached the upper band at 15:45 ET before retracing sharply, closing below the lower band at 16:00 ET, indicating a high-risk environment. A volatility contraction was observed between 04:00–09:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout could follow.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged during the 15:45–16:00 ET hour, with 273,995.6 tokens exchanged at a notional value of $4.08 million, correlating with the sharp price decline. A price-volume divergence is visible between 09:00–15:00 ET, where price rose but volume declined, suggesting a potential bearish reversal. Total turnover of $42.8 million aligns with the aggressive downswing, indicating high conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 10:15–15:45 ET swing include 38.2% at $0.01525, 50% at $0.01518, and 61.8% at $0.01510. Price broke below the 50% Fib level before closing near $0.01481, indicating a high probability of further downside. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fib remains a watch-level near $0.01496, which could see renewed selling pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the RSI falls below 30 and MACD turns negative, confirming oversold bearish momentum. A stop-loss is placed above the 50-period MA, and a take-profit is set at 61.8% Fib support. A long bias is triggered when the RSI rises above 70, and price breaks above the Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period MA. Given today’s behavior, the short setup was activated around 15:15 ET and would have captured most of the downward move, with a high win probability. However, the long signal is not yet valid and may require a retest of key support levels.