Threshold/USDC Market Overview – 2025-10-05

• Threshold/USDC traded in a tight range early but surged past 0.01545 before consolidating.
• Volatility expanded during overnight hours, with a sharp rise to 0.01591 amid low volume.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions briefly in early morning, followed by a sharp reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the 0.01580–0.01592 peak, indicating potential trend exhaustion.
• Volume was concentrated in the 0.01560–0.01575 range, suggesting a key support zone.

The Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) pair opened at 0.01534 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01564 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05, with a high of 0.01591 and a low of 0.01532. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 661,845.1, while notional turnover amounted to approximately 10.27. Price displayed a strong overnight rally from 0.01548 to 0.01591, followed by a sharp reversal and consolidation below 0.01575.

Structure & Formations

Price action during the 24-hour window displayed a key consolidation phase from 0.01540 to 0.01548 during the initial 5–6 hours, forming a tight range with multiple doji and small-bodied candles. This suggested indecision among traders. The overnight breakout above 0.01548 was sharp and momentum-driven, forming a bullish engulfing pattern around 0.01563. However, this was quickly met with a bearish reversal near 0.01573–0.01576, indicating short-term profit-taking or resistance. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.01560–0.01565, with several 15-minute candles testing this range and bouncing back.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover around 2025-10-05 01:30 ET, aligning with the initial breakout. However, as the price rose to 0.01591, the 50-period MA started to lag and turned downward slightly, suggesting a potential retest of the 20-period MA. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100-period MA, indicating a medium-term bullish bias, but with no strong upward divergence observed in the last 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive during the early morning hours, peaking at the 0.01591 high before turning bearish again as the price retracted. The histogram showed a peak in positive momentum followed by a sharp contraction, signaling potential exhaustion. RSI climbed into overbought territory (>70) for a brief period around 02:30 ET and quickly reversed, confirming a short-term peak. RSI now sits in neutral territory (~55–60), indicating potential for further consolidation or a possible retest of key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight rally, with price reaching the upper band at 0.01591. This expansion suggested a rise in volatility and momentum but also indicated an exhaustion level. Price subsequently moved back toward the middle band, settling near the 0.01564–0.01567 range, which aligns with the lower half of the band. The narrowing of the bands in the final 6 hours of the period suggests a potential for renewed volatility or a breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the overnight rally, with over 128k units traded at 09:45 ET and another 47k at 10:15 ET, coinciding with price peaks. The sharp increase in turnover during this period suggests strong short-term conviction. However, the lack of follow-through volume after the 0.01591 high indicates a lack of buyers at higher levels. The volume profile also shows a concentration of activity around 0.01560–0.01575, which may support the formation of a new short-term equilibrium.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the overnight swing (0.01548–0.01591), price currently rests near the 38.2% retracement level at ~0.01570. This suggests that the current consolidation is within expected retracement bounds, and a retest of the 50% level (~0.01574) could be the next key move. On a daily basis, the retracement from the recent high (~0.01591) to the low (~0.01560) suggests that the 61.8% level (~0.01578) could be the next critical level if the bearish correction continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be based on the observed overnight breakout pattern followed by a retracement into the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci range. A long entry could be triggered on a breakout above 0.01575 with a stop loss below 0.01564, targeting 0.01585–0.01590. Alternatively, a short entry could be considered on a breakdown below 0.01560, with a target near 0.01550 and a stop above 0.01565. This approach would leverage the current volatility profile and key support/resistance levels, aligning with the RSI and MACD signals observed.