Threshold/USDC Market Overview for 2025-09-26

• Price opened at $0.01543 and traded between $0.01521–$0.01547 before closing at $0.01527
• Sharp drop of ~0.36% in final hours amid increased volume and negative momentum
• Volatility expanded during late-night hours as price swung ~0.46% within 24 hours
• Volume surged past 6.4M USDC at 18:00 ET before tapering during early morning
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening buying pressure despite moderate retracement

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01543 (12:00 ET - 1), reached a high of $0.01547 and a low of $0.01521, closing at $0.01527 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 24.3M USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately $365,000. The pair exhibited a clear bearish shift in the final hours of the session, with a significant volume spike preceding the close.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours displayed several key turning points and patterns. A bullish engulfing pattern briefly formed at 00:15 ET, pushing price to a 24-hour high of $0.01536, but was quickly reversed by a large bearish candle at 01:30 ET that dropped price to $0.01527. A doji at 02:00 ET and a long lower wick at 03:15 ET signaled indecision before a strong bearish breakdown started at 17:00 ET. A key support level appears to be forming near $0.01523, which was tested and held during late-night and early morning hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the late evening, forming a bearish death cross. The 50-period MA currently sits near $0.01529, while the 100-period MA is at $0.01532. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $0.01534 and the 200-period MA at $0.01536, indicating price remains below key long-term averages. This confirms a bearish bias and suggests further consolidation below the 50-period MA is likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line at 19:15 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram has been negative for the last five hours, with decreasing strength after 02:00 ET. RSI has dipped below 40 and is trending downward, currently at 32. This indicates weakening bullish pressure and a possible oversold condition. However, divergence between price and RSI after 04:00 ET suggests limited bearish conviction. A rebound above $0.01529 could trigger a short-term bounce but may not be enough to reverse the trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the last 6 hours of the session, with the upper Bollinger Band peaking at $0.01538 at 01:30 ET. The narrowest contraction occurred at 03:45 ET, when price traded within a $0.00004 range. Currently, price is sitting near the lower Bollinger Band at $0.01523, suggesting a potential rebound could be triggered if short-term support holds. The increasing volatility aligns with the bearish breakdown observed in the final hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged above 6M USDC at 18:00 ET as price dropped from $0.01532 to $0.01526. This was followed by a smaller spike at 21:45 ET as price broke through the $0.01523 level. Turnover closely mirrored volume, with the largest notional value of ~$93,000 recorded at 18:00 ET. Divergence appeared in the early morning hours, when volume declined while price continued to drift lower, suggesting diminishing conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the $0.01547 high and $0.01521 low, the 38.2% level at $0.01533 and the 61.8% at $0.01528 appear to have acted as key psychological thresholds. Price briefly bounced off the 61.8% level at 04:45 ET before resuming the downward move. This suggests that any short-term recovery may find resistance at $0.01528, with a potential breakdown target at $0.01521 if momentum remains bearish.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and key support levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short position triggered upon a close below $0.01525 with a stop at $0.01530 and a target at $0.01520. This aligns with the 20-period MA and the lower Bollinger Band, both of which acted as resistance during the breakdown. RSI oversold conditions and volume divergence also support the strategy, though a break above $0.01529 could negate the setup. The strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish move while managing risk with tight stop levels.