Threshold/USDC Market Overview – 2025-09-24

• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) closed slightly higher at $0.0156 after a 24-hour consolidation pattern.
• Price found key resistance at $0.0157 and support at $0.01544, with bearish rejection observed in the early session.
• A strong bullish reversal occurred overnight, with price rising to $0.01559 by 03:30 ET amid heavy volume.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight hours, with high volume concentrated in the $0.01539–$0.01559 range.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions early in the session but has shown signs of bullish momentum since 05:00 ET.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01544 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.01578, and closed at $0.0156 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. Total 24-hour volume was 13.8 million units, with a notional turnover of $213,031. The pair exhibited a bullish reversal during the overnight hours, followed by consolidation in the $0.0156 range.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish reversal pattern following a bearish decline to $0.01544, with a significant rejection observed at that level. A strong candle on 03:30 ET opened at $0.0155 and closed at $0.01559, suggesting a possible support at $0.01544 and resistance at $0.01559. The following hours showed a sideways consolidation pattern, with the price staying within a tight range of $0.0156–$0.01565.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed at approximately $0.01557, suggesting a potential bullish bias. On a longer time frame, the 50D and 100D SMAs crossed in the $0.0155–$0.0156 range, reinforcing the idea that TUSDC is consolidating in a key price corridor after a bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory overnight, signaling a bullish momentum shift. RSI moved from an oversold level of 30 to a neutral range around 50, confirming a possible short-term recovery. The histogram showed a bullish divergence in the early morning hours, aligning with the price action and suggesting a strong probability of a bounce from the $0.01544 support.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight hours, with a large candle on 03:30 ET breaking through the lower band at $0.01544 and closing near the middle band. The bands have since constricted again, indicating a possible consolidation phase. Price has remained within the bands for most of the session, with no signs of a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 4.38 million at 03:30 ET, coinciding with a bullish reversal from $0.01544 to $0.01559. Turnover also increased during this period, confirming the strength of the reversal. Later in the session, volume remained moderate, with the price consolidating in the $0.0156 range. No significant divergences between price and volume were observed, indicating consistent flow.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the overnight low of $0.01544 and high of $0.01559, the key retracement levels are at $0.01548 (23.6%), $0.01552 (38.2%), and $0.01555 (50%). Price has been consolidating just below the 50% level, suggesting that a breakout above $0.01555 could signal a resumption of the bullish phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI entering the oversold zone (below 30) and a bullish MACD crossover on the 15-minute chart. A long entry could be placed near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.01555), with a stop-loss placed below the previous low of $0.01544. A take-profit target could be set at the next resistance at $0.01565. Given the current setup, this approach could potentially capture a short-term bounce from consolidation.