Threshold/USDC Market Overview for 2025-09-22

• Threshold/USDC traded lower over 24 hours, closing near session low after a sharp sell-off in the early AM ET window.
• Volume surged during the sell-off but tailed off sharply in the final 6 hours, suggesting exhaustion or lack of follow-through.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum divergence, with RSI nearing oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, indicating increased volatility followed by contraction.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early morning, signaling potential short-term bearish bias.

Opening and Closing Activity

Threshold/USDC opened at $0.01642 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.01646, and closed at $0.01529 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET after hitting a session low of $0.01468. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 11,118,459.7 units, with a notional turnover of $174,588.92. Price action shows a bearish tilt, with a late-night selloff dominating price movement.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a large bearish engulfing pattern during the early morning hours (02:45–03:00 ET), with a $0.01621 open and a $0.01597 close, signaling strong bearish momentum. A series of spinning top and doji candles appeared in the final 5 hours, suggesting indecision. Key support levels formed around $0.01529 and $0.01468, while resistance is likely at $0.01542 and $0.01554.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA from below, hinting at potential bearish crossover. The 100-period MA is a potential near-term resistance level if buyers show interest in the next 48 hours.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26 MACD crossed below the signal line during the late-night selloff, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 28 in the early morning, reaching oversold territory, which could indicate a short-term bounce is due. However, price failed to make a strong rebound, suggesting further downside risk if sellers re-enter.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff from $0.01627 to $0.01468, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band at $0.01529, suggesting the move may have room to continue. A contraction in band width during the final 6 hours indicates reduced volatility and a potential pause in price action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 4.4 million units during the 02:30–02:45 ET candle, coinciding with the $0.01621 to $0.01597 price drop. Turnover during that period was approximately $70,612, representing over 40% of the 24-hour total. Volume has since tailed off sharply, with a number of zero-volume candles in the final 6 hours. This suggests that the selloff may have run out of steam, but lack of follow-through buying remains a concern.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key bearish leg from $0.01646 to $0.01468, price has hit the 61.8% retracement level at $0.01529. A break below this level would suggest the 78.6% target at $0.01499 could be next. On the 15-minute chart, key retracement levels for the morning drop include $0.01597 (61.8%) and $0.01608 (78.6%), with potential for a shallow rebound if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the overbought-to-oversold RSI divergence, a potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting the pair upon confirmation of the engulfing pattern and placing a stop above the high of the preceding bullish candle. A take-profit target could be aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.01529, with an additional target at $0.01468 as a secondary objective. This strategy would benefit from low-volume follow-through in the final hours, suggesting a lack of buying pressure to counter further downside.