Threshold/USDC Market Overview – 2025-09-20

• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) closed near session low, with bearish momentum observed in late ET trading
• Key resistance appears near $0.01675–0.01676; support at $0.01670–0.01671 tested repeatedly
• Volatility expanded mid-session, followed by consolidation near $0.0167
• MACD and RSI suggest weakening bullish momentum; price could test key support
• Large-volume corrections occurred at $0.01670–0.01671, indicating potential reversal levels

The Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) pair opened at $0.0167 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.01685 by 01:00 ET on 2025-09-20. Price closed at $0.01668 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20, following a consolidation phase near $0.0167. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 3.24 million TUSDC, while notional turnover reached approximately $52,757. A bearish drift defined the session, with key support at $0.01670–0.01671.

Structure & Formations

Price formed several bearish patterns throughout the session, including a bearish engulfing at $0.01676–0.01674 and a hanging man formation near $0.01675–0.01674. A key resistance level appears to be forming between $0.01675 and $0.01676, with the price failing to hold above that area multiple times. A strong rejection from $0.01676–0.01674 and a pullback to $0.01670–0.01671 suggest that traders are cautious about further bullish moves.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish tone. A crossover of the 50-period MA below the 20-period MA could indicate a potential short-term bearish shift. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA continues to offer dynamic resistance, and the 200-period MA sits at $0.01670, acting as a key support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line with a bearish divergence, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions and raising the possibility of a near-term bounce. However, the RSI has shown signs of topping out in the mid-30s, suggesting bearish continuation could be in play if the price fails to rally above $0.01675.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated for the first half of the session, with price frequently touching the upper and lower bands. A notable contraction occurred around $0.01671 as the market consolidated, followed by a breakdown below the lower band at 03:00 ET on 2025-09-20. This suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend if support at $0.01669–0.01670 fails.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was particularly active between $0.01674 and $0.01670, with large-volume candlesticks appearing around 23:15 ET and 02:15 ET. Notional turnover also spiked during these periods, confirming the bearish action. A divergence appears between price and volume as the price moves lower while volume declines, which may hint at a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing from $0.01668 to $0.01685, the 38.2% level is around $0.01674 and the 61.8% level at $0.01671. Price tested the 61.8% level multiple times, indicating a potential short-term support zone. A break below $0.01668 could target the next Fibonacci level at $0.01665, though this is speculative at this stage.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 50-period MA crosses below the 20-period MA, confirmed by a bearish divergence in MACD and a close below key support (e.g., $0.01670). A stop-loss is placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% level or beyond if the 50/20 MA cross continues in a bearish direction. Based on today's session, a backtest entry would have been triggered around 02:15 ET on 2025-09-20, with the short position holding through most of the day. The strategy appears to align well with the observed price behavior, particularly the rejection at key resistances and the bearish momentum observed in the RSI and MACD.