Threshold/USDC Market Overview for 2025-09-19

• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) fell sharply during the 24-hour period, forming bearish continuation patterns.
• Key support levels were tested below 0.01675, with volume surging as price declined.
• Volatility expanded significantly with a drop from 0.01749 to 0.01669, and RSI shows oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands contracted early, followed by a violent expansion confirming the breakdown.
• Total notional turnover exceeded $117.6k, with volume spiking on the breakdown below 0.01675.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01742 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01672 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.01749 and a low of 0.01669. Total volume for the period was 11.1 million, while total notional turnover was approximately $186,700. Price action was driven by a sharp breakdown, with bearish continuation patterns dominating the last 8 hours of trade.

Structure & Formations

Price began the session consolidating between 0.01741–0.01749 before a decisive breakdown emerged in the evening. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 19:30–20:00 ET window, confirming the shift in sentiment. Key support levels were identified at 0.01675 and 0.01670, both of which were tested and briefly held. A long lower shadow at 0.01669–0.01672 suggested possible stabilization, though bearish pressure remains dominant.

Support / Resistance Levels

Immediate resistance appears at 0.01675 and 0.01680, with 0.01685 as a secondary resistance level. Support levels are currently at 0.01669, 0.01665, and potentially 0.01660. A strong rebound from 0.01669 could trigger a retracement toward 0.01675, though a break below 0.01665 may invite further bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below price, confirming a strong downtrend. A bearish crossover between these two indicators occurred near 0.01745, aligning with the breakout. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are also bearish, reinforcing the likelihood of continued downward movement unless the price retests 0.01675–0.01680 with strong bullish volume.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish, with the line crossing below the signal line and both indicators trending downward. RSI is in oversold territory (around 28), which typically signals a possible short-term bounce. However, due to the strong bearish momentum and high volume on the breakdown, the bounce may be limited to the 0.01670–0.01675 range before further selling pressure emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion after a period of contraction. Price closed near the lower band at 0.01669, suggesting heightened volatility and continued bearish bias. A retest of the lower band with strong volume could either confirm a new support level or trigger a deeper pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly below the 0.01675 level, confirming the breakdown. The highest volume was observed around 0.01670–0.01669, indicating heavy distribution or liquidation. Notional turnover increased in line with the price decline, with no significant divergence seen, suggesting continued conviction among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the last major 15-minute swing (0.01749 to 0.01669) show 38.2% at 0.01708 and 61.8% at 0.01686. Price appears to have found temporary support near the 61.8% retracement level, though a close above 0.01685 with rising volume may signal a short-term reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a breakdown below key moving averages and confirmation by a bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop placed above the 20-period moving average. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci level or a defined support area. This approach could be validated by testing on historical data, using volume and RSI as secondary confirmation tools.