Three Reasons Why KEX is Risky and One Stock to Buy Instead

Investors in the Transportation - Shipping sector might be considering Kirby (KEX) as a potential addition to their portfolios. However, a closer examination reveals three significant risks associated with KEX that investors should be aware of before making a decision. In this article, we will explore these risks and present an alternative stock that offers a more attractive risk-reward profile.

First, let's examine KEX's debt levels and interest cover. As of 2024, KEX carries a net debt of $994.6m, with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.6. Its interest cover stands at 7.9 times. While KEX manages its debt responsibly, its higher debt levels and lower interest cover compared to industry peers such as BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE:BJ) suggest a relatively riskier position.



Second, KEX's earnings growth potential appears to lag behind that of its peers. With a forward EPS growth rate of just 1.4%, KEX falls short of the sector average. Additionally, its P/E ratio of 23.5 is significantly higher than the sector average of 2.5. This combination of low earnings growth and high valuation makes KEX less attractive compared to other options in the sector.



Third, KEX's reliance on a single segment, Marine Transportation, exposes it to significant risk. This segment accounts for over 90% of its revenue, making the company vulnerable to disruptions in this sector. Furthermore, the segment faces headwinds like regulatory risks and competition, further increasing KEX's exposure to these risks.

As an alternative to KEX, investors may want to consider ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM). ZIM has a Value grade of A, while KEX has a Value grade of C, indicating a more favorable valuation for ZIM. Additionally, ZIM has a lower forward P/E ratio (2.99 vs 20.65), a lower PEG ratio (0.09 vs 0.69), and a lower P/B ratio (0.88 vs 2.02), suggesting better value and growth potential. Furthermore, ZIM's diversified business model makes it a more resilient choice for investors.



In conclusion, while KEX may initially appear attractive, its high debt levels, low earnings growth, and reliance on a single segment present significant risks to investors. Instead, investors should consider ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, which offers a more attractive risk-reward profile with its strong valuation metrics and diversified business model. By carefully evaluating the risks and opportunities associated with each stock, investors can make more informed decisions and maximize their returns in the Transportation - Shipping sector.

The end.