Thomson Reuters TRI: A Technical Breakout and Dividend Resilience in a Volatile Market

Thomson Reuters (TRI) has emerged as a standout performer in the Business Services sector, defying broader market headwinds tied to tariff disputes and geopolitical uncertainty. A 9.6% surge in late July propelled TRI to a new 52-week high of $218.30, breaching its 2023 peak and signaling a technical breakout that could unlock further gains. Pairing this momentum with a stable dividend yield of 1.1% and robust cash flows, TRI presents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking resilience amid macroeconomic turbulence.

The Technical Catalyst: A Breakout with Legs

The recent rally was fueled by unusually strong volume, with shares trading at nearly triple their average daily turnover. This surge pushed TRI above its 2023 high of $179.85 (its 200-day moving average), a level it had struggled to surpass for over a year.

. Key technical indicators reinforce this bullish shift:

• Bollinger Bands: The stock broke above its upper band ($203) by 8%, a rare move signaling breakout momentum.
• MACD: A bullish crossover (histogram rising above the signal line) suggests sustained upward momentum, though traders should monitor weakening histogram strength.
• RSI: At 62.5, TRI remains in neutral territory, avoiding overbought conditions.

Risk Management: Bulls should treat the $210–$212 range as critical support. A close below $210 would invalidate the breakout, while holding above $218.30 confirms a new upward trajectory.

Dividend Resilience Amid Sector Volatility

While the Business Services sector grapples with margin pressures from tariffs, TRI has maintained its dividend discipline. The company's quarterly dividend of $0.595 (annualized $2.38) has been steady since 2022, even as peers like S&P Global (SPGI) cut payouts. This stability stems from TRI's diversified revenue streams, including its AI-powered legal and financial data platforms, which have delivered consistent cash flows.

Year-to-date, TRI has surged 34%, outperforming SPGI's 5% decline and the S&P 500's flat performance. Analysts attribute this resilience to TRI's focus on innovation—evidenced by its $1.2 billion investment in AI tools and data infrastructure over the past three years.

Options Strategies to Capitalize on Momentum

For traders, July and August call options offer a leveraged entry while limiting risk. The July $220 strike (TRI20250718C220) provides high leverage (66% upside potential if shares hit $225) but faces rapid time decay (Theta of -1.17). Traders with a longer horizon might prefer the August $220 strike (TRI20250815C220), which offers slower decay (Theta of -0.23) and flexibility until mid-August.

Valuation and Earnings: A Mixed Picture

TRI's valuation is rich by historical standards: its forward P/E of 44.52 reflects optimism around its AI-driven growth. However, consensus estimates for FY 2025 call for only 7.3% EPS growth, down from prior forecasts. This moderation raises questions about whether the stock can sustain its rally without stronger earnings revisions.

The Bottom Line: A Balanced Approach

TRI's technical breakout and dividend stability make it a strategic buy for investors willing to accept moderate valuation risks. The stock's $210–$212 support zone acts as a natural stop-loss level, while its $225 resistance offers a near-term target. For conservative investors, pairing a long position with protective puts (e.g., the $210 strike) could mitigate downside risk.

In a market defined by uncertainty, TRI's blend of cash flow resilience, AI-driven growth tailwinds, and a technical breakout positions it as a rare defensive growth play. Investors should prioritize disciplined risk management but remain open to the possibility that this 125-year-old media giant has yet to peak.