Thomson Reuters Surges 3% on Share Buyback and AI-Driven Growth Hype – What’s Next?

Summary
• Thomson Reuters (TRI) surges 2.99% to $159.305, breaking above $157.69 open
• $1 billion share repurchase program announced, signaling confidence in capital structure
• Analysts raise price targets to $193–$208, citing AI-driven legal tech expansion
• Options chain shows aggressive call buying at 155–160 strikes, with 64.67% price change ratio on 150C155

Thomson Reuters’ intraday rally defies a muted Software sector, driven by a $1 billion buyback and bullish analyst revisions. The stock trades near its 52-week high of $218.42, with technical indicators suggesting short-term momentum. Investors are weighing AI-driven growth in legal tech against a 48.06x dynamic P/E ratio.

Share Buyback and AI Product Launch Fuel Short-Term Optimism
Thomson Reuters’ 3% surge stems from a $1 billion share repurchase program announced August 15, signaling management’s confidence in undervaluation. Simultaneously, the launch of CoCounsel Legal—AI-powered legal research—on August 5 has drawn institutional buying. Analysts at Canaccord and Natixis raised price targets to $193–$208, while Q2 earnings beat expectations with AI-driven revenue growth. The stock’s 2.99% gain reflects optimism about margin expansion from AI tools, despite margin concerns flagged in August 6 earnings calls.

Options Playbook: Aggressive Calls on 155–160 Strikes Align with Bullish Momentum
• MACD: -5.32 (Signal: -6.01, Histogram: +0.68) – bullish divergence
• RSI: 40.48 – oversold rebound
• Bollinger Bands: 166.17 (Upper), 156.07 (Middle), 145.98 (Lower) – price near upper band
• 30D MA: 161.98 (below current price)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term breakout. The stock is testing the 160.61 intraday high, with RSI at oversold levels and MACD showing positive divergence. For aggressive bulls, TRI20251121C155 and TRI20251121C160 offer high leverage (19.53%–27.92%) and moderate delta (0.6477–0.5091).

TRI20251121C155
• Code: TRI20251121C155
• Type: Call
• Strike: $155
• Expiry: 2025-11-21
• IV: 27.35% (moderate)
• Leverage: 19.53% (high)
• Delta: 0.6477 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.1484 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0264 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 4,157 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($167.27): $12.27/share
• Ideal for capitalizing on a $165–$170 breakout with high gamma amplifying gains.

TRI20251121C160
• Code: TRI20251121C160
• Type: Call
• Strike: $160
• Expiry: 2025-11-21
• IV: 28.62% (moderate)
• Leverage: 27.92% (high)
• Delta: 0.5091 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.1406 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0271 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 1,830 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($167.27): $7.27/share
• Balances leverage and delta for a $165–$170 target, with high theta decay favoring quick moves.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy TRI20251121C155 into a break above $160.61. Watch for $165 resistance; if breached, TRI20251121C160 offers higher leverage.

Backtest Thomson Reuters Stock Performance
I have completed the back-test and packaged the results for interactive review. Key implementation details:• Definition of the “3 % Intraday Surge” event: every trading day from 2022-01-03 to 2025-10-15 on which TRI’s close-to-close daily return ≥ 3 %. • Trading rule: buy at the next session’s close, hold up to 5 trading days (a common horizon for short-term momentum capture). • No stop-loss / take-profit were applied (you can refine these later).Open the module below to view full statistics (CAGR, hit-rate, P&L curve, drawdown, etc.) and drill into every signal:Feel free to explore the metrics and let me know if you’d like to adjust holding period, add stop-loss / take-profit levels, or investigate alternative triggers.

Break $165 to Validate AI-Driven Growth Narrative – Watch Microsoft’s Tech Sector Lead
Thomson Reuters’ 3% rally hinges on execution of its AI-driven legal tech strategy and buyback confidence. The stock must close above $165 to confirm a breakout from the 156.07–166.17 Bollinger Band range. Technical indicators favor a short-term push toward $170, but 48.06x P/E remains a hurdle. Microsoft (MSFT), the sector leader, fell 0.13% today, suggesting broader tech caution. Investors should monitor Microsoft’s performance for sector sentiment cues. Act now: Buy TRI20251121C155 if $160.61 is breached; exit if $155 support fails.