Thomson Reuters Skyrockets 2.9%—What’s Fueling This Sudden Surge?

Summary
• Thomson Reuters (TRI) surges 2.89% to $172.67, driven by a $1B share buyback program.
• Intraday range of $168.32–$173.15 highlights sharp post-announcement momentum.
• Technicals show RSI at 12.02 (oversold) and MACD -8.04 (bearish divergence).

Thomson Reuters’ stock is trading at its highest level since early 2025, fueled by a surprise $1B share repurchase plan. The move has ignited investor optimism, pushing the stock 2.89% higher in a single session. With the 52-week range of $151.60–$218.42 and a dynamic P/E of 52.09, the rally raises questions about sustainability and sector alignment.

Share Buyback Ignites Investor Optimism
Thomson Reuters’ 2.89% intraday surge is directly tied to its newly announced $1B share repurchase program. The NCIB, approved by the TSX, allows the company to buy back up to 10 million shares (2.22% of outstanding stock) over the next 12 months. This move signals strong capital discipline and confidence in the stock’s intrinsic value, particularly as the company aims to return capital to shareholders amid a disciplined growth strategy. The buyback also aligns with TRI’s historical approach to balancing dividends and share repurchases, reinforcing its appeal to income-focused investors.

Specialty Business Services Sector Mixed as RELX Trails
The Specialty Business Services sector, where TRI operates, has shown mixed performance. RELX (RELX), the sector leader, rose 0.08% to $47.81, while peers like Cintas (CTAS) and Wolters Kluwer (WKL.AS) lagged. TRI’s 2.89% gain outperformed the sector, driven by the buyback’s immediate impact on valuation metrics. However, broader sector trends remain cautious, with RELX’s muted move reflecting broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on TRI’s Volatility
• Technical Indicators: RSI at 12.02 (oversold), MACD -8.04 (bearish), 200D MA empty (no long-term trend).
• Key Levels: Support at $164.68 (Bollinger Lower Band), resistance at $173.15 (intraday high).
• ETF Focus: No leveraged ETF data available; focus on options.

Top Options:
• TRI20250919C170 (Call, $170 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 20.09% (moderate), Leverage: 28.73%, Delta: 0.623 (moderate), Theta: -0.1677 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0349 (high sensitivity).
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($181.25), profit = $11.25/share. Ideal for aggressive bulls capitalizing on short-term momentum.
• TRI20251017C175 (Call, $175 strike, 10/17 expiry):
- IV: 18.27% (moderate), Leverage: 37.40%, Delta: 0.473 (moderate), Theta: -0.0880 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.0302 (high sensitivity).
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($181.25), profit = $6.25/share. Offers balanced risk/reward for mid-term bullish bets.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize TRI20250919C170 for short-term gains, while TRI20251017C175 suits those with a slightly longer horizon. Both benefit from high gamma and moderate IV, aligning with TRI’s post-buyback volatility.

Backtest Thomson Reuters Stock Performance
The performance of Tilray (TLRY) after a 3% intraday surge shows positive short-term outcomes, with backtesting indicating:1. 3-Day Win Rate: 58.51% of days showed a positive return, indicating moderate success in the short term.2. 10-Day Win Rate: The win rate increased to 62.77%, suggesting a higher probability of positive returns over a slightly longer period.3. 30-Day Win Rate: The strongest performance was observed with a 72.80% win rate, indicating a high likelihood of positive returns over a month following a 3% intraday surge.4. Average Returns: The average return over 3 days was 0.50%, over 10 days was 1.48%, and over 30 days was 4.28%. This indicates that while the returns may not be spectacular, they are consistently positive, making TLRY a solid choice for investors looking for steady growth.5. Maximum Gain: The maximum gain observed over 30 days was 8.59%, which is a significant upside potential that investors should be aware of.In conclusion, Tilray shows favorable performance characteristics following a 3% intraday surge, making it a promising stock for those looking to capitalize on short-to-medium-term momentum. However, investors should monitor the stock's performance closely, as there is still a degree of volatility present, especially in the shorter time frames.

Seize the Momentum—But Watch for Oversold Reversals
Thomson Reuters’ 2.89% surge is a short-term win driven by the $1B buyback, but technicals suggest caution. The RSI at 12.02 indicates oversold conditions, hinting at potential rebound. However, the bearish MACD and Bollinger Bands suggest volatility could persist. Investors should monitor the $173.15 intraday high as a key resistance level. Meanwhile, sector leader RELX’s 0.08% gain underscores the broader sector’s mixed outlook. For now, the call options TRI20250919C170 and TRI20251017C175 offer the best leverage to capitalize on TRI’s momentum. Act now: Buy TRI20250919C170 if $170 breaks, or hold TRI20251017C175 for a mid-term play.