Thomson Reuters Navigates Turbulence with Steady Hand, Eyes 2025 Growth

Thomson Reuters has reaffirmed its 2025 financial outlook with unwavering confidence, projecting 7.0–7.5% organic revenue growth and a 39% adjusted EBITDA margin, despite headwinds in its news division and macroeconomic uncertainty. This resilience underscores the company’s focus on its core professional services segments, which are powering ahead even as generative AI reshapes adjacent markets.

Core Strengths Anchor Growth

The “Big 3” segments—Legal Professionals, Corporates, and Tax & Accounting—account for 84% of total revenue and delivered 9% organic growth in Q1 2025. The Tax & Accounting Professionals segment stood out, surging 11% organically with a 170-basis-point margin expansion to 56.7%, driven by demand for its automation tools. These results reflect the company’s success in monetizing its deep expertise in regulated industries, where clients rely on specialized solutions to navigate compliance and operational complexity.

The company’s strategic bets, such as the $600 million acquisition of SafeSend (a tax automation platform) and its AI-driven legal product CoCounsel, are designed to amplify these advantages. Management emphasized during its May investor call that these investments position Thomson Reuters to capitalize on long-term trends in compliance, risk management, and workflow efficiency.

Navigating Challenges with Caution

Not all divisions are thriving. The Reuters News segment reported a 7% revenue decline in Q1, with EBITDA dropping 34% as generative AI disrupts content licensing. While this segment contributes only 16% of total revenue, its struggles highlight the broader industry shift toward AI-generated content—a challenge many media companies are grappling with.

Thomson Reuters is responding by doubling down on its professional services, which are less vulnerable to AI commoditization. CEO Steve Hasker noted in the investor call that “AI is a tool to enhance, not replace, our core offerings,” emphasizing that the company’s value lies in its curated data, regulatory expertise, and client relationships.

Financial Fortitude and Shareholder Returns

Despite a 1% decline in reported total revenue (to $1.9 billion) due to divestitures and currency headwinds, Thomson Reuters maintained $809 million in adjusted EBITDA and increased its annual dividend by 10% to $2.38 per share. This marks the company’s 32nd consecutive year of dividend growth, a testament to its disciplined capital allocation.

Conclusion: A Calculated Gamble on Core Competency

Thomson Reuters’ reaffirmed 2025 outlook is a calculated bet on its ability to sustain growth through its “Big 3” segments while weathering disruptions in adjacent markets. With 9% organic growth in its core businesses and $600 million allocated to strategic tech acquisitions, the company is doubling down on its strengths in a volatile environment.

The dividend increase and margin stability (39% adjusted EBITDA) further signal financial health. However, investors must weigh the risks: Reuters News’ struggles could worsen if AI adoption accelerates, and currency pressures may persist. Yet, with $1.12 in adjusted EPS and a track record of executing through downturns, Thomson Reuters appears well-positioned to meet its 2025 targets.

For long-term investors, the stock’s current valuation—trading at 16x forward EV/EBITDA—offers a reasonable entry point into a firm that’s both a leader in its niche and a beneficiary of secular trends like regulatory complexity and digital transformation. The path forward hinges on whether the “Big 3” can outpace headwinds and whether AI investments yield tangible returns. For now, Thomson Reuters is betting its future on the sectors it knows best—and the numbers suggest it’s a bet worth watching.