This Unstoppable E-commerce Stock Is Up 160% in 2024: Is It Still a Buying Opportunity?

Pinduoduo (PDD), the third-largest e-commerce company in China, has been on a tear in 2024, with its stock soaring nearly 160% year-to-date. The company's unique discount marketplace strategy, combined with its expansion into overseas markets and the agricultural sector, has driven its impressive growth. But with geopolitical tensions and competitive pressures looming, is PDD still a buying opportunity? Let's dive into the data and expert opinions to find out.

PDD's rapid growth is undeniable. The company's revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 69% from 2019 to 2023, while its net income has nearly tripled in the same period. In Q1 2024, PDD's revenue growth accelerated to 131% year over year, with operating margins expanding to 30%. These impressive numbers have made PDD one of the few Chinese stocks U.S. investors are still buying amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and China.

PDD's success can be attributed to its unique business model and strategic expansion. The company initially carved out a niche with its discount marketplace, encouraging shoppers to team up across social media platforms to score bulk discounts. This strategy caught competitors like Alibaba and JD.com off guard, allowing PDD to gain hundreds of millions of shoppers across China's lower-tier cities. PDD capitalized on this early growth spurt by building an online agricultural marketplace and expanding overseas with Temu, a cross-border e-commerce platform.



However, PDD's valuations could stay compressed as long as U.S.-China tensions persist. The company may also face unpredictable competitive and regulatory headwinds. In PDD's latest conference call, co-CEO Chen Lei admitted that PDD's industry peers had "significantly stepped up their efforts" to compete against its platform. As for the regulatory challenges, Temu could face more pressure from regulators in the U.S. and Europe as they crack down on popular apps tethered to Chinese companies.

Despite these challenges, PDD's growth rates have been impressive, and analysts expect revenue and net income to both increase at a CAGR of approximately 33% from 2023 to 2026. At a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 and less than four times this year's sales, PDD looks dirt cheap relative to its long-term growth potential. However, geopolitical risks and competitive headwinds may compress PDD's valuation.

In conclusion, PDD's impressive growth rates and expansion strategies make it an attractive long-term investment opportunity. However, investors should be aware of the geopolitical tensions and competitive pressures that could impact the company's valuation. If you believe macro forces present too much risk for the company, then you should avoid PDD and its peers. Otherwise, this stock could be a great long-term play at its current valuations.