THETRY Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Range and Momentum Divergence

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) surged to an intraday high of 8.789 before retracting to 7.709, showing volatile swings over 24 hours.
• Momentum, as seen in RSI and MACD, suggests overbought conditions at peaks and oversold at troughs, indicating potential reversal zones.
• Strong volume surges coincided with price spikes and retracements, suggesting active participation during key price levels.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the mid-day high, reflecting heightened volatility, while retracing lower into tighter bands.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 00:45 ET, signaling a short-term topping process with potential for a pullback.

The THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) pair opened at 7.886 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 8.789, and dipped to a low of 7.709 before closing at 7.78 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window stood at 11,148,926.9 with a notional turnover of approximately 90,150,626 Turkish Lira.

Key support and resistance levels were clearly defined over the 15-minute chart, with resistance forming near 8.10–8.20 and support developing between 7.80–7.90. A notable bearish engulfing candle emerged at 00:45 ET, suggesting a short-term top. A doji at 03:15 ET also indicated indecision at lower levels. The 20-period moving average (15-min chart) remained below the 50-period line, reflecting a weak short-term bias, though both lines were trending upward as the price bottomed.

MACD showed a positive crossover early in the session but weakened as the day progressed, suggesting a loss of upward momentum. RSI hit overbought conditions (≥70) at 18:15 ET and oversold territory (≤30) at 03:30 ET, reinforcing potential reversal levels. Bollinger Bands expanded during the intraday high, with price touching the upper band before retracing. Volatility has since compressed, with the price consolidating near the 20-period moving average.

Volume activity was concentrated around key price levels, with the largest 15-minute volume spike at 18:15 ET (2.5 million Turkish Lira traded), coinciding with the price reaching a session high. Divergences between price and volume were observed during the downward retracement phase, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover confirmed the price highs and lows, indicating strong market participation.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy could be built around the observed RSI overbought (≥70) and oversold (≤30) levels combined with volume confirmation. The hypothesis would look to take short positions when RSI crosses above 70 and volume spikes, and long positions when RSI dips below 30 with confirmatory volume. Stop-loss and take-profit levels could be set at key Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the 15-minute swing highs and lows. This approach would aim to capture high-probability reversals using clear technical signals observed during the 24-hour period.