THETRY Market Overview: Bearish Momentum, Oversold RSI, and Strong Sell Pressure

• THENA/Turkish Lira declined over the 24-hour period, closing near a key support level.
• Momentum weakened as RSI approached oversold territory, signaling potential rebound.
• Volume surged during the downward move, indicating strong bearish conviction.
• Price broke below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, hinting at extended weakness.
• Volatility expanded through the latter half of the session, pushing price toward lower Bollinger Band levels.

Market Update

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 11.067 at 12:00 ET – 1, reached a high of 11.170, a low of 10.683, and closed at 10.683 by 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 1,719,594.5 with a notional turnover of approximately 18,433,894.9 Turkish Lira.

The session was marked by a sharp bearish shift in sentiment, particularly in the early hours of the trading day. Price moved decisively lower, forming a bearish engulfing pattern in the pre-market hours. This was followed by a continuation of the downtrend into the early afternoon. The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both fell below the price, confirming the bearish bias. The RSI dropped below 30, signaling potential oversold conditions and a possible short-term reversal, though a sustained close above 10.816 may be required for a meaningful bounce.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels were identified at 10.816 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing high to low), and at 10.683 (the 24-hour low). Resistance levels sit at 10.903 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and 10.979 (recent intraday high). A strong break above 10.979 could signal a reversal in momentum and a potential test of the 11.067 opening level.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart was at 10.944 and the 50-period MA was at 10.976, both well above current price levels. The price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating an expansion in volatility and a strong move to the downside. Price appears to be in a volatile contraction phase after forming a range between 10.903 and 10.979, but the recent break below the lower band suggests momentum is still on the bearish side.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

The highest volume spike occurred at 10.875, coinciding with a sharp drop in price to 10.816. The volume-to-price divergence was negative, as higher volume was associated with lower prices, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Another notable volume spike occurred around 10.917, though it failed to push price higher, indicating a lack of buying interest at those levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine trading decisions, a backtesting strategy could be applied using RSI. Historically, RSI levels below 30 are considered oversold, potentially signaling a short-term buying opportunity. A simple strategy would involve buying at confirmation (RSI < 30) and holding for three days before selling. However, accurate execution would require precise RSI data for THETRY. If a benchmark is needed for performance comparison, clarification on whether to use “HOLD.P – Harbor Alpha Layering ETF” or another asset is required. Once the correct ticker and benchmark are confirmed, the RSI-based trade signals can be generated and backtested from 2022–01–01 to the present.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

Looking ahead, THETRY may remain under pressure in the near term, especially if the 10.816 support level fails to hold. A sustained close below that level could trigger a test of the next major support at 10.704. However, the RSI nearing oversold levels suggests a potential short-term bounce is possible. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains high, and sudden shifts in sentiment could occur due to macroeconomic factors or broader crypto market moves.