THETRY Market Overview for 2025-10-07

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) surged from 18.936 to 21.222 before retracing, closing near 19.233 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged between 06:00–11:30 ET, followed by a sharp pullback and consolidation.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 06:00–11:30 ET session, with a peak-to-trough range of 23.4%.
• Turnover spiked to a 24-hour high of $7.06M on the 20.79 close, but diverged on the subsequent sell-off.
• A 3-hour bullish engulfing pattern at 06:45–09:45 ET provided strong support for the breakout.

Price Summary and Initial Observations

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 18.936 at 12:00 ET − 1 on 2025-10-06 and closed at 19.233 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The 24-hour range spanned from a low of 18.936 to a high of 21.222. The total volume over the period was 1,226,873.1 and the total notional turnover amounted to $23,956,748.0. The price action reflects a strong bullish impulse followed by a deep retracement, indicating mixed market sentiment and potential short-term volatility.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a complex price structure with several key patterns. A notable 3-hour bullish engulfing pattern formed between 06:45 and 09:45 ET, confirming a breakout above 20.0. This was followed by a bearish continuation pattern at 14:00–16:00 ET, where a long lower shadow on the 15:00 ET candle suggested rejection at the 19.60–19.70 resistance cluster. Additionally, a doji at 15:00 ET marked a potential exhaustion of sellers, hinting at a near-term reversal. Key support levels appear to be forming at 19.0 and 18.8, while 20.0 and 21.0 remain critical resistance levels.

Moving Averages and Trend Direction

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) crossed below the price late in the session, suggesting a weakening bullish bias. The 20SMA stood at 19.45 while the 50SMA hovered around 19.60, reinforcing the bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the 50SMA (19.0), 100SMA (18.9), and 200SMA (18.85) are closely aligned, indicating a potential support cluster at 18.8–19.0. The price appears to have tested this confluence and bounced back, suggesting the short-term trend may not be fully bearish.

MACD and RSI Momentum

The MACD line crossed below the signal line late in the session, indicating a potential bearish turn in momentum. The histogram showed a contraction in bullish momentum from 11:30 ET onward, with bearish divergence evident in the last 4 hours. RSI values peaked near 80 at 11:30 ET, confirming overbought conditions, but fell to a low of 42 by 16:00 ET, signaling a possible oversold rebound. The RSI's recent pullback suggests traders are taking profits after a strong move up, and the next 24 hours could see a retest of the 19.5–19.7 RSI support range.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 06:00–11:30 ET session, with the price moving outside the upper Bollinger Band as high as 21.222. The 20-period Bollinger Band width reached a peak of 1.35 during this period, indicating a sharp price acceleration. By 14:00 ET, the price had retreated to the lower band, suggesting a return to mean-reversion dynamics. The current price is sitting slightly above the middle band, indicating a potential equilibrium phase. A contraction in the Bollinger Band width may precede a breakout or breakdown in the near term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked dramatically during the 08:15–09:45 ET window, with the 09:15 ET candle recording 81,251.3 in volume and $1,625,026.6 in turnover. This confirmed the 20.0–20.5 breakout. However, from 14:00 ET onward, volume and turnover began to diverge from the declining price, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move. The 15:00–16:00 ET window showed a volume of 87,079.0 but only $1,741,580.0 in turnover, indicating weak selling pressure. This divergence may foreshadow a short-covering rebound in the coming hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 06:00–11:30 ET move, the 61.8% retracement level sits at approximately 19.85, which was briefly tested but failed to hold. The 50% level at 19.7 and 38.2% at 19.5 are currently acting as psychological resistance levels. For the 15-minute chart, the 11:30–15:00 ET correction suggests a 61.8% retracement to 19.35 as a potential support zone. This zone was tested at 15:30 and 16:00 ET, and its hold or breakdown could determine the next short-term trend direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed 3-hour bullish engulfing pattern, the 20SMA crossover, and the RSI divergence, a backtesting strategy could be designed to enter long at the open of the candle following the engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss placed just below the pattern's low. A profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 19.85. The strategy would aim to capture the immediate bullish continuation while managing risk through a trailing stop or fixed exit at key resistance. This approach would benefit from the high volatility and clear price structure observed in the 24-hour timeframe.