Thermo Fisher (TMO) surged 9.14% to close at $466.71 in its latest session, marking a two-day cumulative gain of 15.25% on elevated volume. This robust rebound follows a period of significant volatility and establishes the context for our technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory A decisive bullish reversal pattern emerged over the last three sessions. The July 21 bearish close ($404.94) was followed by a long green candle on July 22 (5.60% gain) that eclipsed the prior day’s range. The subsequent session gapped up and formed another strong bullish candle with a wide range ($465.55–$487.93), closing near its high. This sequence suggests accumulation and invalidates the immediate downtrend. Key support now resides at $404.94 (July 21 low), while resistance converges near $488–$500, aligning with the July 23 high and psychological barriers.
Moving Average Theory The 50-day moving average (approx. $425) was decisively breached during the rebound, signaling short-term trend reversal potential. However, the price remains below the 100-day (approx. $450) and 200-day (approx. $495) averages, reflecting persistent intermediate-term bearish pressure. A sustained move above the 100-day MA would reinforce bullish momentum, while the 200-day MA serves as a critical long-term resistance hurdle.
MACD & KDJ Indicators The MACD histogram shifted into positive territory following a bullish crossover, indicating accelerating upside momentum. Simultaneously, the KDJ oscillator’s %K line vaulted from oversold (<20) to near 75 over two sessions, confirming a rapid shift in directional bias. This confluence signals strengthening upward impulse, though proximity to KDJ overbought territory (>80) suggests potential near-term exhaustion.
Bollinger Bands The July 22–23 rally propelled the price from the lower band to the upper band (approx. $480), accompanied by a pronounced band expansion. This volatility surge signals an end to the preceding consolidation phase. While the upper band breach implies short-term overextension, the expansion’s momentum favors continued directional movement before mean reversion.
Volume-Price Relationship Volume surged 243% on July 23 relative to the 30-day average, validating the bullish breakout with the highest volume since early May. This conviction-backed advance significantly strengthens the reversal thesis. However, sustainability requires follow-through volume; divergence in subsequent sessions would warn of weakening momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) The 14-day RSI rocketed from oversold (29) to near overbought (68) in two sessions, reflecting extreme momentum compression release. While crossing 50 supports bullish sentiment, the velocity of the ascent creates vulnerability to consolidation near the 70 overbought threshold. Investors should note this warning sign despite the indicator’s confirmation of trend strength.
Fibonacci Retracement Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing high of $627.88 (September 10, 2024) and swing low of $390.50 (June 20, 2025), the 23.6% retracement ($446.30) now acts as support. The current price approaches the 38.2% level ($480.80), which converges with the July 23 high ($487.93) and Bollinger Band resistance—creating a technical confluence zone likely to trigger profit-taking. A decisive break above $488 would target the 50% retracement at $509.20.
Confluence exists at $480–$488, where Fibonacci resistance, the Bollinger Band upper limit, and a volume gap from July 18 converge, heightening reversal probability. Primary divergence centers on the RSI nearing overbought against continued MACD momentum expansion—suggesting near-term consolidation may precede further upside. The volume-backed bullish reversal favors continuation upon digestion of overbought conditions, with sustained trade above $480 required to confirm trend resumption.
Comments
No comments yet