THENA/Turkish Lira Market Overview (THETRY)

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) rose 34.4% over the 24-hour period, closing at 16.998 after a strong rally from 15.49.
• Key resistance was tested and broken near 16.5 and 16.95, with strong volume confirming the breakout.
• RSI and MACD showed accelerating bullish momentum, with RSI approaching overbought territory.
• Volatility increased significantly in the second half of the day, with volume surging to 6.1 million at peak.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 61.8% aligned with key resistance levels, suggesting potential consolidation or reversal.

The THENA/Turkish Lira pair (THETRY) opened at 15.49 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 16.998 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, registering a high of 17.45 and a low of 15.111. Total volume over 24 hours reached 30.7 million, with a notional turnover of 523.5 million TRY, reflecting heightened participation and volatility.

The price action displayed a clear bullish trend, with the pair forming a strong ascending pattern supported by rising volume and price. A bullish engulfing pattern occurred around 19:45 ET, breaking above 16.5, followed by a series of strong green candles and a decisive breakout above 17.0. A notable 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA in the late afternoon, confirming the bullish momentum. The 50-period moving average currently sits at 16.85, acting as a dynamic support level. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA has also crossed above the 200-period MA, a classic "golden cross" signal.

The MACD line surged into positive territory, with the histogram expanding, indicating strong bullish momentum. RSI approached 75, suggesting the pair is approaching overbought conditions, particularly in the 09:00–11:00 ET window. However, sustained volume and strong close-to-high candles suggest buyers are willing to hold positions through overbought levels. Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 18:00 ET, indicating rising volatility, with price staying near the upper band during the rally. This suggests the market is trading in high conviction rather than sideways consolidation.

Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with the 16.5–17.0 price range confirmed key resistance levels were in play. The 61.8% retracement at 17.07 was breached with a strong candle confirming the breakout. The 17.45 high approached the 78.6% retracement level, which could serve as a potential reversal zone in the near future. The 16.50–16.95 range is now likely to become a key support cluster, where a pullback could find buying interest.

The backtesting strategy involves using the 50-period and 200-period moving averages to generate a "golden cross" signal. This strategy is typically used for longer-term trends and is reinforced by the recent RSI and MACD readings indicating strong momentum. A backtest could assess how well this crossover strategy would have performed using the recent THETRY data, especially in the context of the recent upward surge and high volatility. Given the current setup, a long position triggered by a golden cross and confirmed by rising RSI and MACD would align with the prevailing market conditions.