Thanksgiving Week Preview: Key Consumer Earnings and Economic Data to Watch
2min read As Thanksgiving week unfolds, markets will focus on major earnings from consumer-oriented companies and crucial economic data. This combination offers critical insights into consumer spending, retail trends, and inflation, setting the tone for the year-end market sentiment.
Economic Data in the Spotlight
A holiday-shortened week will feature pivotal reports, with Wednesday taking center stage:
- PCE Price Index: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to rise 2.3% annually for October, compared to 2.1% in September. Core inflation is projected to increase by 2.8% annually.
- Consumer Spending: Anticipated to grow 0.3% in October, though at a slower pace than September’s 0.5%.
- Durable Goods Orders: Expected to rebound 0.5% after a September decline, with core capital goods orders slowing to 0.3%.
- Consumer Confidence: November’s reading is forecasted to improve to 111.6 from 108.7 in October, indicating resilience despite inflation pressures.
- New Home Sales: Predicted to slip to 725,000 units from 738,000, reflecting a cooling housing market.
Retail Earnings: Mixed Signals Ahead of Holidays
A series of high-profile retail earnings will provide fresh perspectives on consumer sentiment and holiday shopping trends:
- Bath & Body Works: Anticipated revenue growth driven by strong demand for personal care and fragrances. Key insights on holiday promotions will be crucial.
- Macy’s and Kohl’s: Both are expected to report sales declines as department stores face heightened competition and cautious consumer spending. Investors will assess their holiday forecasts and promotional strategies.
- Best Buy: Marginally lower same-store sales are likely due to weak demand for high-ticket electronics. Early holiday sales trends will be a focal point.
- Nordstrom: A revenue boost from Rack and key product offerings is expected, with updates on potential company sale discussions and holiday guidance eagerly awaited.
- Abercrombie & Fitch: Likely revenue gains driven by Hollister and its core brand will highlight consumer demand for its apparel.
- HP: A rise in AI-powered PC demand is projected to boost fourth-quarter revenue.
- J.M. Smucker: Strong sales of packaged foods, including jams and frozen items, are expected, with focus on pricing strategies amid rising coffee costs.
What It Means for Investors
This holiday-shortened week offers crucial insights into inflation trends and consumer behavior, two key drivers for the markets. With mixed retail performances and data likely influencing Federal Reserve policy, investors should brace for potential volatility as the year-end approaches.
