Thailand's Mid-Band Spectrum Auction: A Strategic Gamble Paying Off for AIS and True

The recent mid-band spectrum auction in Thailand has crystallized the telecom duopoly's grip on the market, with AIS and True Corporation emerging as the sole winners in a high-stakes game of strategic investment. Their aggressive bidding—often at premiums above reserve prices—signals confidence in future returns, while their spectrum utilization plans underscore a clear roadmap to dominate 5G and prepare for 6G. For investors, this is a critical moment to assess whether these moves solidify their long-term growth trajectories or overextend them in a capital-intensive industry.

A Duopoly's Bold Bet

The National Broadcasting, Television and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) auction, finalized just days ago, raised THB41.28 billion (US$1.26 billion), with AIS (via its subsidiary AWN) and True (via TUC) securing the lion's share of the spectrum. The standout bids came in the 2,100MHz and 2,300MHz bands, where AIS and True paid 10% and 19.7% premiums, respectively, over reserve prices.

AIS prioritized the 2,100MHz band, acquiring three 10MHz blocks for THB14.85 billion. This move aligns with its strategy to bolster urban 5G coverage while avoiding the 850MHz band, which went unsold. In contrast, True focused on 2,300MHz and 1,500MHz, securing seven blocks in the former (THB21.77 billion) and four in the latter (THB4.65 billion). The result? True's total mid-band holdings now stand at 280MHz across eight bands—a portfolio that enables carrier aggregation, which reduces latency and boosts speeds.

Why the High Premiums?

The bidding premiums reflect more than just competition; they signal a calculated bet on Thailand's telecom future. Both firms are positioning themselves to capitalize on rising data demands, driven by 5G-enabled services like IoT, smart cities, and autonomous vehicles. The NBTC's regulatory timeline—certification by July 6, activation by August—also compresses the timeline for competitors to respond, granting AIS and True a head start.

Moreover, the unsold 850MHz spectrum (often prized for rural coverage) highlights strategic priorities: AIS and True may view it as less critical for their urban-centric revenue streams, or too costly to justify given the high prices. Either way, the duopoly's focus on mid-band spectrum—critical for balancing coverage and capacity—suggests they are optimizing for high-margin 5G services, not blanket market penetration.

Regulatory Outlook and Investment Implications

The NBTC's upcoming auctions—3,500MHz in 2026 and 5G-A/6G spectrum in early 2025—will test these companies' staying power. However, their current spectrum holdings already provide a multi-year advantage.

For investors, the key question is whether the premiums paid today will translate into sustainable revenue growth. AIS's disciplined approach—avoiding overextension in lower-value bands—reduces financial risk, while True's broader portfolio enhances its ability to offer differentiated services. Both companies are also likely to benefit from cost savings via spectrum aggregation, which reduces the need for infrastructure investments.

Risks and Rewards

The risks are clear: overpaying for spectrum could strain balance sheets if demand for 5G services stalls. Additionally, regulatory shifts or new competitors (e.g., state-backed players) could disrupt the duopoly. Yet the strategic logic remains compelling. By securing spectrum now, AIS and True lock in dominance over prime frequencies, which are finite and increasingly scarce. Their moves also align with global trends: telecom giants like Verizon and AT&T have similarly prioritized mid-band spectrum to future-proof networks.

Conclusion: A Long-Term Play

For investors seeking exposure to Thailand's telecom growth, AIS and True now look like long-term winners. Their spectrum holdings position them to capitalize on the 5G lifecycle, which could stretch well into the 2030s, and provide a foundation for 6G trials. While near-term stock volatility is possible—especially ahead of the 3,500MHz auction—their disciplined bidding and strategic foresight suggest these are companies built to endure.

Investment advice: Consider gradual allocation to ADVANC and TRU for portfolios focused on telecom infrastructure growth, with a horizon of 3–5 years. Monitor the next spectrum auction and 5G revenue trends closely for confirmation of their dominance.

Data sources: NBTC auction results, company statements, and industry analyses.