Thai Stocks Hold Steady as SET Index Maintains Momentum

The Thai stock market has been relatively flat in recent weeks, with the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index holding steady despite external headwinds and domestic tailwinds. The SET Index, which tracks the performance of the top 50 listed companies in Thailand, has been trading within a narrow range, reflecting investors' cautious optimism about the country's economic outlook.

Historically, the Thai Stock Market (SET50) reached an all-time high of 1223.67 in February of 2018. However, the index has since experienced a decline, with the current level standing at 845.18 points as of February 4, 2025. Despite the recent fluctuations, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the Thai stock market, with a consensus forecast predicting the SET Index to trade at 845.18 points by the end of the current quarter and 812.38 points in 12 months' time.

The Thai equity market in 2025 faces external headwinds and domestic tailwinds, highlighting trade war impacts, political uncertainty, and policy support. Focus is on resilient sectors like Commerce and Telecommunications. Key Takeaways from a research paper by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities suggest that the Thai equity market in 2025 will face a challenging year, with external headwinds such as the threat of a trade war and political uncertainty. However, there are positive factors such as policy support and potential aggressive gestures from the Bank of Thailand. The paper recommends focusing on sectors and stocks with strong bottom-up catalysts, particularly in Commerce, Telecommunications, Agriculture & Food, and Consumer Finance sectors. Top stock recommendations for the first quarter of 2025 include CPF, GLOBAL, IVL, MINT, PR9, SCB, SPRC, and TRUE.



InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd., the financial investment flagship of the SCBX Group, forecasts a synchronized global economic recovery in Q3 2024, with notable rebounds in Europe and Asia. The US economy remains robust, showing a gradual deceleration, or "soft landing," allowing the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates within the year. Similarly, the European Central Bank (ECB) has already made interest rate cuts, expected to bolster stock markets overall. Thailand's economy is poised for recovery in the second half of 2024, driven by accelerated budget disbursement and improvements in the manufacturing and tourism sectors. InnovestX projects Thai economic growth at 2.5% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025, with the SET Index target set at 1,500 points by year-end. For Q3 2024, InnovestX recommends stocks that will benefit from the global recovery, earnings growth, and interest rate cuts, highlighting ADVANC, KCE, OSP, PTTGC, and TU as top picks.

In conclusion, the Thai stock market has been relatively flat in recent weeks, with the SET Index holding steady despite external headwinds and domestic tailwinds. While the market faces challenges such as the threat of a trade war and political uncertainty, there are also positive factors such as policy support and potential aggressive gestures from the Bank of Thailand. Investors should focus on sectors and stocks with strong bottom-up catalysts, particularly in Commerce, Telecommunications, Agriculture & Food, and Consumer Finance sectors. As the Thai economy recovers and the global economic outlook improves, the Thai stock market is expected to maintain its momentum and potentially reach new highs in the long term.