Thai New Vehicle Market: A Slippery Road in October

The Thai new vehicle market, long considered a regional powerhouse, has hit a pothole in the road to recovery. In October 2024, the market witnessed a significant downturn, with total production plummeting by 25.13% year-on-year (YoY) to 118,842 units. This decline, driven by a 7.00% decrease in exports and a substantial 51.70% decrease in domestic sales, has raised concerns about the market's future prospects.



Analyzing the market's performance by segment reveals a mixed picture. Passenger car production, which accounts for a significant portion of the market, decreased by 17.07% YoY to 47,481 units. Among the different types of passenger cars, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles saw the most significant decline, with a 22.49% decrease to 32,607 units. Meanwhile, battery electric vehicle (BEV) production surged by 34,300% to 688 units, demonstrating the growing interest in electric vehicles. However, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) production fell by 8.76% to 500 units, while hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) production decreased by 6.48% to 13,686 units.

Pickup trucks, another crucial segment, experienced a 27.83% YoY decline in production, with only 70,514 units manufactured in October 2024. Truck production also witnessed a significant decline, with a 29.67% decrease to 71,361 units.



The primary factors contributing to the Thai new vehicle market's decline are stringent lending criteria and high household debt levels. According to the National Credit Bureau, non-performing loans (NPLs) for automobile and home loans increased by 15% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024. This trend has led to a higher rejection rate for auto loans, making it more challenging for consumers to purchase new vehicles. Additionally, the Thai economy's slowdown, with GDP growth slowing to 1.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, has negatively impacted consumer spending and vehicle purchases.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the semiconductor supply chain, have also exacerbated the market's decline. Thailand, a significant global auto hub, relies heavily on imported semiconductors, which have been disrupted by geopolitical issues and trade tensions. The global semiconductor shortage, exacerbated by tensions between the U.S. and China, has made the Thai automobile industry more vulnerable to these disruptions, contributing to the market's recent downturn.

In conclusion, the Thai new vehicle market's recent decline is a cause for concern, with stringent lending criteria, high household debt levels, and geopolitical tensions being the primary contributing factors. As the market continues to grapple with these challenges, both consumers and industry players must adapt to the shifting landscape. Despite the bleak outlook, the market's resilience and the growing interest in electric vehicles provide a glimmer of hope for the future. Investors, however, should exercise caution when considering the Thai new vehicle market, as the road to recovery remains uncertain and fraught with challenges.