Thai Exports Defy Tariffs: How to Play the EV, Tech, and Agri Boom While Navigating U.S. Trade Headwinds

Thailand's exports surged 10.2% year-on-year in April 2025, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth and defying the specter of U.S. tariffs. While the Biden administration's trade policies loom large, the data reveals a resilient economy pivoting toward sectors poised to thrive even as geopolitical clouds gather. From electric vehicles (EVs) to semiconductors and rice, here's how to invest in Thailand's export engine while sidestepping the most vulnerable areas.

The Auto Sector's EV Revolution: Tariff-Proof Growth?

Thailand's automotive exports fell 18.1% overall in early 2025, but the EV segment is a rocket ship. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) production soared 366% year-on-year, while battery electric vehicles (BEVs) jumped 175%. Exports to the U.S. surged 406.7%, but only 2.3% of passenger car exports are bound for the U.S.—a critical detail often overlooked by tariff pessimists. The real action is in Vietnam (+74.5%) and the UAE (+53.1%), where demand is soaring.

The EV 3.5 incentive scheme and $3 billion investment in charging infrastructure by 2026 are turbocharging Thailand's position as Southeast Asia's EV hub. Investors should target companies like Auto Alliance (AUTO.BK), a manufacturer of EV components and distributor of Tesla vehicles, which has leveraged diversification into markets like Vietnam.

Semiconductors: Riding the Global Tech Cycle

Semiconductor (IC) exports rose 16.5% despite a 15.2% dip in domestic production due to inventory adjustments. Thailand's role in global supply chains—particularly for printed circuit boards and semiconductors—means it's less exposed to U.S. tariffs than China. HANA Microelectronics (HANA.BK), a key supplier to Apple and Samsung, trades at a P/E of 12.5x, well below its peers.

Agriculture: The World's Rice Leader, Despite Drought Risks

Thai rice exports skyrocketed 91.5% in early 2025, capitalizing on its status as the globe's top exporter. Rubber exports rose 36.2%, fueled by industrial demand. While drought in the Chao Phraya Basin poses risks, Thailand's logistics efficiency and EU-ASEAN trade deals provide a safety net. Mitr Phol (MITR.BK), a rice giant with a P/E of 8.9x, is a buy for its dominance in global commodity markets.

The Sectors to Avoid: Plastics and Traditional Auto

Plastic exports grew 12.4%, but domestic sales slumped due to trade tensions and environmental policies like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Stick to EVs, not single-use plastics. Meanwhile, traditional automakers reliant on U.S. markets—like Toyota's Thailand division—face margin pressure.

The Bottom Line: Structural Winners Outrun Cyclical Risks

Thailand's export boom isn't cyclical—it's structural. EV adoption, semiconductor demand, and agricultural dominance are here to stay. While U.S. tariffs and global PMI contractions pose short-term headwinds, equities trade at a 10% discount to regional peers. Investors should:
- Buy EV supply chain leaders (AUTO.BK, TET ETF)
- Hoard semiconductors (HANA.BK)
- Go long on agro-commodities (MITR.BK, TAG ETF)

Monitor U.S.-Thailand trade talks closely, but don't let fear of tariffs deter you—Thailand's diversification playbook is already written.

The time to act is now. The world needs Thailand's EVs, semiconductors, and rice—no matter who's in the White House.