Thai Airways (THAI): A High-Conviction Turnaround Story Re-Emerging on the SET

Let's talk about a story that's not just about survival but about reinvention. Thai Airways (THAI) is back—and it's not just back, it's better. After a grueling four-year court-supervised rehabilitation, this once-struggling national carrier has emerged with a cleaner balance sheet, a sharper strategy, and a plan to dominate the skies. For investors who like their risk with a side of reward, this is the kind of high-conviction play that checks every box.

The Restructuring Playbook: From Bankruptcy to Breakout

When the pandemic hit, THAI was already in trouble. By 2020, it was drowning in over 400 billion baht in debt, with negative equity and a fleet that was as fragmented as its finances. But here's what they did: They didn't just cut costs—they reinvented themselves.

First, they slashed their debt. By converting 53.5 billion baht of creditor debt into equity and raising fresh capital through a shareholder offering, THAI turned its equity from a negative 43 billion baht to a positive 55 billion baht in just four years. That's not a tweak—it's a reset. Their debt-to-equity ratio? Dropped from a dangerous 12.5x in 2019 to a healthy 2.2x as of Q1 2025. And let's not forget the operating profit: 13.7 billion baht in Q1 2025, with a 26.5% EBIT margin—the highest among full-service carriers in Asia-Pacific and Europe. That's not just recovery; it's dominance.

But restructuring isn't just about numbers. It's about strategy. THAI streamlined its fleet from eight aircraft types to four, engine variants from nine to five. This isn't just efficiency—it's operational agility. And with a 170-billion-baht investment plan over five years, they're not just surviving; they're setting up for a decade of growth.

Financial Normalization: A Leaner, Meaner Machine

The real magic here is in the details. THAI's cash reserves have ballooned from 22 billion baht pre-rehabilitation to 152 billion baht by Q1 2025. That's not just liquidity—it's optionality. They're using it to fund their fleet expansion, which will nearly double from 78 to 150 aircraft by 2033. And with 45 new Boeing 787-9s on order, they're not just buying planes—they're buying routes.

But here's what's even more impressive: They're not just investing in hardware. They're investing in software. Digital transformation is at the core of their strategy. From AI-driven maintenance systems to a revamped mobile app, THAI is betting big on tech to reduce costs and boost customer satisfaction. And it's working—customer satisfaction hit 98% in 2024, up from 94% in 2019. That's not just a number—it's a moat.

Long-Term Growth: A Net-Zero Ambition and a Global Network

Let's talk about the future. THAI isn't just a regional player anymore. Their joint business agreement with Turkish Airlines gives them a footprint in Europe without the need for new aircraft. Their U-Tapao MRO project in Thailand's Eastern Economic Corridor? That's not just a maintenance hub—it's a strategic asset to attract global aviation partners.

And then there's the sustainability angle. With a net-zero emissions target by 2065, THAI is aligning with global ESG trends that are reshaping the industry. Investors who care about long-term value—and who shouldn't they?—will notice that this isn't just about compliance; it's about future-proofing.

Investment Thesis: A Buy for the Bold

Here's the bottom line: THAI is a textbook turnaround story. The numbers speak for themselves—positive equity, strong margins, and a debt load that's now manageable. But it's the strategy that makes this a high-conviction play.

• Debt restructuring has created a stable foundation.
• Fleet rationalization and digital transformation are driving efficiency.
• Strategic partnerships and sustainability goals position THAI for long-term relevance.

For investors with a medium-term horizon, THAI is a compelling opportunity. The relisting on the SET in August 2025 isn't just a formality—it's a signal. This is a company that's not just bouncing back but leapfrogging its competitors.

Yes, there are risks—fuel prices, geopolitical tensions, and the inherent volatility of the airline sector. But for those who can stomach the noise, the reward potential is clear.

Final Take: Thai Airways is no longer the airline that nearly collapsed in 2020. It's a leaner, smarter, and more ambitious company with a plan to dominate the skies. If you're looking for a high-conviction play in the post-pandemic era, this is it.

Now go check the charts—and prepare to be impressed.