TGT Plunges 2.56% to $100.57 208th in Volume as Earnings Miss and 14.8% EPS Drop Loom

Generated by AI AgentAinvest Market Brief
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 8:15 pm ET1min read
TGT--
Aime RobotAime Summary

- Target's stock fell 2.56% to $100.57, ranking 208th in volume with $650M traded, underperforming major indices.

- Q2 earnings missed estimates ($1.30 vs $1.65 expected), with revenue down 2.8% YoY to $24.2B and 14.8% EPS decline projected.

- Institutional investors showed mixed sentiment: Foster & Motley increased stake by 17.7%, while Federated Hermes cut holdings by 7.6%.

- Analysts revised price targets (JPMorgan to $109, RBC to $103), noting a 2.95 PEG ratio suggesting overvaluation despite 13.66 forward P/E.

- A high-volume momentum strategy generated 166.71% returns since 2022, outperforming S&P 500 by 137.53% but facing long-term viability risks.

Target Corporation (TGT) closed July 31 at $100.57, down 2.56% with a trading volume of $650 million, ranking 208th in the market. The stock underperformed broader indices, lagging the S&P 500’s 0.37% decline and the Dow’s 0.74% drop. Recent quarterly results missed analyst estimates, reporting $1.30 per share earnings versus $1.65 expected, with revenue falling 2.8% year-over-year to $24.2 billion. Analysts anticipate a 19.07% year-on-year earnings decline in the August 20 report, with full-year projections showing a 14.79% EPS drop and 1.79% revenue contraction.

Institutional investor activity highlighted mixed sentiment. Foster & Motley Inc. increased its stake by 17.7%, holding 38,207 shares valued at $3.99 million, while Federated HermesFHI-- Inc. reduced its position by 7.6%, selling 54,022 shares. Analysts have revised price targets, with JPMorganJPM-- raising its estimate to $109 and Royal Bank of CanadaRY-- cutting it to $103. Target’s forward P/E ratio of 13.66 remains below its industry average of 22.04, but a PEG ratio of 2.95 suggests overvaluation relative to growth expectations. The stock carries a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), reflecting weak analyst consensus.

A backtest of a high-volume momentum strategy showed a 166.71% return from 2022 to present, outperforming the S&P 500’s 29.18% by 137.53%. The strategy’s success underscores liquidity-driven momentum, though its reliance on evolving market dynamics may affect long-term viability.

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