TG Therapeutics: Is the Price Target Cut Priced for Perfection?

The recent price target cut from JPMorgan Chase is a classic case of sentiment recalibration. The firm maintained its Overweight rating while lowering its target from $49.00 to $46.00, a reduction of 6.12%. This move, issued earlier this month, suggests a minor reassessment of near-term valuation rather than a fundamental breakdown in the company's story. The action fits a pattern of volatility in analyst views, which has included a 6.52% price target increase from $46.00 to $49.00 in November 2025 and a high $60.00 target from HC Wainwright earlier in 2025.

Viewed against the stock's technical position, the cut appears more like a minor correction in a choppy market. TG Therapeutics is currently trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, well below its 200-day moving average price of $32.01. This technical setup indicates persistent pressure and a lack of strong momentum, which may have prompted JPMorgan to trim its optimism. The stock's recent dip to around $29.15 reflects this underperformance, even as the broader analyst consensus remains cautiously positive with an average target of $44.86.

The bottom line is that the JPMorgan action likely signals a shift in sentiment rather than a fundamental reassessment. The maintained Overweight rating shows analysts still see the company's pipeline and commercial potential. However, the lowered target, coming after a period of significant stock volatility and a recent pullback, suggests the market is pricing in a more cautious path forward. For investors, the key question is whether this minor correction has already priced in the perceived risk, leaving the stock vulnerable to any positive surprise or, conversely, exposed to further sentiment-driven selling.

The Growth Engine: BRIUMVI's Performance vs. Market Expectations

The market's expectations for BRIUMVI are being met with strong, if not yet spectacular, execution. The drug is capturing significant share in its niche, but the path to the ambitious 2026 target requires a clear view of whether current momentum is sufficient.

BRIUMVI's commercial launch has been effective, capturing approximately 30% of new IV MS prescriptions in the US. This market share gain is a key validation of its competitive positioning, especially as it moves to take volume from the established leader, Ocrevus. The prescription trend supports this momentum, with a reported 6% increase in new scripts over the past three months. This indicates growing physician and patient acceptance, which is critical for sustaining growth.

Financially, the company has consistently raised its guidance, signaling confidence. In November, management raised its full-year 2025 U.S. BRIUMVI revenue target to approximately $585 million. Preliminary results for the fourth quarter show the drug hit approximately $182 million in U.S. net product revenue, putting it on track to meet or exceed that target. This execution is the foundation for the next step: the 2026 outlook.

Management's target for the coming year is the focal point of the expectations gap. The company has set a goal of $825-850 million in U.S. BRIUMVI net product revenue for 2026. This implies high single-digit growth from the projected 2025 run-rate, a significant but not explosive acceleration. The question for investors is whether the current trajectory of prescription growth and market share capture can reliably support that level of expansion. The stock's recent underperformance suggests some skepticism about this growth path.

The bottom line is that BRIUMVI is performing well against its initial commercialization benchmarks. However, the market's valuation likely already prices in this solid execution. The real test-and the source of future volatility-will be whether the company can demonstrate, in the coming quarters, that it is on a clear path to hit the high end of its 2026 target. Any deviation from that path will be scrutinized, as the expectations gap narrows.

Valuation and Risk/Reward: Assessing the Priced-In Reality

The current setup presents a classic investment puzzle: a stock trading near its lows, with a lowered price target that still implies significant upside, but against a backdrop of tangible competitive risks. The market cap of $5.14 billion anchors the valuation, placing TG Therapeutics in the mid-cap category. This figure reflects a company with a growing commercial product and a pipeline, but it also means the stock is not immune to the volatility typical of its sector.

JPMorgan's revised target of $46.00 suggests a potential upside of roughly 58% from recent levels around $29.15. On the surface, that's a compelling number. However, the context is critical. This target is a 6.12% reduction from a prior high of $49.00, not a new, aggressive estimate. The maintained Overweight rating indicates the core growth thesis remains intact. The cut, therefore, appears to be a minor reassessment of near-term valuation and risk, rather than a fundamental shift. For the risk/reward ratio, this means the potential return has been modestly trimmed, but the perceived risk has also been slightly adjusted downward.

The key asymmetry of risk lies in the competitive landscape. The primary threat is not just from Ocrevus, but from Kesimpta, which achieved $2.2 billion in U.S. revenue five years post-approval. This benchmark sets a high bar for BRIUMVI's long-term potential. While BRIUMVI is capturing 30% of new IV MS prescriptions, the path to the company's ambitious 2026 target of $825-850 million in U.S. net product revenue requires accelerating that share gain. Any slowdown in that momentum would directly pressure the growth trajectory priced into the stock.

The bottom line is that the recent price target cut likely reflects a fair, if minor, reassessment of the risk/reward. The stock's underperformance and technical weakness suggest the market is already pricing in some caution. The 58% upside from current levels is substantial, but it is now based on a more modest growth path. For investors, the asymmetry hinges on execution. The risk is that competitive pressures, particularly from Kesimpta's established scale, could limit BRIUMVI's growth, making the current valuation vulnerable. The reward is that if management can demonstrate a clear path to hitting its 2026 targets, the stock could re-rate higher. The cut, therefore, may have already priced in a more cautious view, leaving the stock poised for a move based on the next quarter's commercial results.

Catalysts and What to Watch: Testing the Thesis

The path forward for TG Therapeutics hinges on a few key catalysts that will either validate the current cautious valuation or force a reassessment. The stock's recent underperformance suggests the market is already pricing in some skepticism, but the setup remains binary. Investors should watch for three primary signals that will test the thesis and determine if the expectations gap is closing or widening.

First, the commercial engine must keep running. The reported 6% increase in new BRIUMVI scripts over the past three months is a positive trend, but it needs to be sustained and accelerated. The company's goal of $825-850 million in U.S. net product revenue for 2026 implies a high single-digit growth rate from the projected 2025 run-rate. The near-term focus should be on prescription data and market share trends to see if the drug can continue capturing volume from Ocrevus. Any deviation from this growth trajectory would directly challenge the growth narrative and likely trigger a more significant re-rating.

Second, pipeline updates are critical for mitigating long-term competitive concerns. The company is actively advancing its clinical data, with presentations on the ENABLE real-world study and other Phase 3 programs scheduled for the ACTRIMS meeting. These data points are not just academic; they aim to support the growth narrative by demonstrating BRIUMVI's real-world efficacy and safety, which could help defend its market share against rivals. The pipeline also includes potential new formulations and indications, which could provide future growth levers. For now, the key is whether these updates bolster confidence in the drug's durability.

The primary risk, however, remains the raised 2026 revenue guidance itself. Management has set a clear target, and the stock's valuation likely already prices in a successful execution of that plan. The real catalyst for a move will be the company's ability to consistently report results that meet or exceed these ambitious numbers. A miss would be a direct signal that the competitive pressures-particularly from Kesimpta's established scale-are more severe than priced in. Conversely, strong quarterly reports that show accelerating growth would provide the evidence needed to close the expectations gap and support a higher multiple.

In essence, the next few quarters are a test of execution against a raised bar. The lowered price target from JPMorgan reflects a minor reassessment, but the stock's fate will be determined by the hard numbers from the commercial and pipeline fronts. The market is waiting for proof that the company can hit its 2026 targets, and until then, the cautious sentiment is likely to persist.