TG Therapeutics Plunges 15.76%—Is the Earnings Miss Just the Beginning?

Summary
• TG Therapeutics (TGTX) tumbled 17% to $29.50, its lowest since late February
• Q2 revenue hit $138.8M (U.S.) but missed earnings by 4 cents/share
• Raised Briumvi U.S. sales guidance to $570–575M
• Intraday range: $28.28–$32.20, trading below 200-day MA at $34.07

Today’s selloff in TG Therapeutics underscores the fragility of biotech’s earnings resilience. Despite a revenue beat and raised guidance for its MS drug Briumvi, the stock’s 17% plunge—its worst intraday drop in over a year—reflects a market punishing the company for underwhelming margins and regulatory uncertainty. With the stock now trading near its 52-week low of $20.05, the question looms: Can TGTX rebound, or is this the start of a deeper bearish correction?

Earnings Miss and Rising Costs Spur Investor Flight
TG Therapeutics’ 17% collapse stemmed from a Q2 earnings report that revealed a 4-cent-per-share miss driven by surging operating expenses. While U.S. Briumvi revenue of $138.8 million exceeded expectations, the company’s adjusted EPS of $0.17 fell short of the $0.32 consensus. Analysts highlighted that SG&A costs ballooned to $55.6 million for the quarter, up 45% year-over-year, undermining optimism around the $575M sales target. The selloff intensified as investors questioned whether the company’s aggressive commercialization strategy—expanding Briumvi to Europe and Australia—would translate into sustainable margins.

Biotech Sector Volatile Amid Earnings Scrutiny
The biotech sector, led by Amgen (AMGN) with a 1.68% intraday gain, showed mixed momentum. While TGTX’s collapse drew attention, peers like Moderna (-10%) and Alnylam (+8%) reflected broader sector jitters over regulatory risks and margin pressures. Amgen’s resilience highlights the contrast between well-capitalized giants and mid-cap innovators like TG Therapeutics, which now face heightened scrutiny on execution versus pipeline potential.

Options Playbook for a Volatile Rebound
• RSI: 29.34 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.367 (bearish), Signal: -0.065, Histogram: -0.302
• Bollinger Bands: Lower at $34.57, Middle at $37.05
• 200-day MA: $34.07 (below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $35.94–$36.02, 200D $33.26–$33.72

TGTX’s technicals suggest a short-term oversold condition, with the 200-day MA acting as a potential floor. The stock’s 15% drop has created asymmetric risk-reward for options traders. Two contracts stand out:

• TGTX20250808P28 (Put, Strike $28, Expiry 8/8):
- Implied Volatility: 78.67% (elevated)
- Delta: -0.26 (moderate sensitivity)Payoff at $28.025 (5% downside): $0.475 per contract

• TGTX20250808C28.5 (Call, Strike $28.5, Expiry 8/8):
- Implied Volatility: 57.27% (reasonable)Payoff at $28.025 (5% downside): $0.475 per contract

Aggressive bulls may consider TGTX20250808C28.5 into a bounce above $28.5. If $28.5 holds, the 28.5 call offers 20%+ leverage on a short-term rebound.

Backtest Tg Therapeutics Stock Performance
The backtest of TGTX's performance after a -16% intraday plunge shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. Here's a detailed analysis:1. Event Frequency and Win Rates: - The event occurred 601 times over the backtested period. - The 3-day win rate was 50.75%, the 10-day win rate was 52.41%, and the 30-day win rate was 55.57%.2. Returns: - The average 3-day return was 1.16%. - The average 10-day return was 1.93%. - The average 30-day return was 5.99%. - The maximum return during the backtest was 11.57%, achieved on day 59.This indicates that TGTX tends to recover from significant intraday plunges with a reasonable probability of positive returns, although the returns are generally modest. Investors should consider these findings in their strategy, keeping in mind that while there is a good chance of recovery, the returns may not be high enough for those seeking significant gains.

Rebound or Reckoning? Key Levels to Watch
TG Therapeutics’ 17% plunge has created a technical and sentiment floor near $28.5, with the 200-day MA at $34.07 acting as a critical psychological barrier. While the company’s raised Briumvi guidance offers hope, execution risks and margin pressures remain. Investors should monitor the 30-day support at $35.94 and 200-day resistance at $33.26 for directional clues. Meanwhile, Amgen’s 1.68% gain highlights sector resilience—watch for a potential TGTX rebound if the stock closes above $32.00. Action: Short-term traders may target the $28.5–$30.00 range for a bounce, while long-term holders should assess the 200-day MA as a sustainability gauge.