TG Therapeutics at JPM: A Tactical Valuation Test

The upcoming presentation at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference is a high-stakes event for TG Therapeutics. Scheduled for Tuesday, January 13, 2026, at 1:30 PM PST, it serves as a direct test of the market's patience with the stock's recent weakness. Shares are down 1.6% today, trading at $29.41. This sets the stage for a critical question: can management articulate a clear, credible path to sustained growth that justifies the current price?

The core issue is one of near-term visibility. After a period of stagnation, the stock's dip signals that investors are demanding more concrete evidence of momentum. The presentation is the company's primary opportunity to shift the narrative. It must move beyond pipeline updates to demonstrate how existing assets, like BRIUMVI, are gaining traction and how future catalysts will drive value. Any vagueness or failure to address the recent price action will likely reinforce skepticism. The setup is clear: a tactical valuation test where the quality of the growth story will be judged in real time.

The Growth Engine: BRIUMVI's Momentum and Limits

The immediate financial engine for TG Therapeutics is clear: BRIUMVI is driving explosive growth. In the third quarter, the drug generated $152.9 million in U.S. net revenue, a figure that represents an 84% year-over-year increase. This performance is the primary reason the company raised its full-year 2025 U.S. revenue target to approximately $585 million. The story is one of strong market demand translating directly into top-line expansion.

Yet, the critical question for the JPM presentation is whether this blistering pace is sustainable. The 84% growth rate in Q3 is impressive, but investors will be watching to see if it represents a deceleration from prior quarters. The evidence shows the drug grew 10% sequentially from Q2, which suggests the growth curve is still steepening, not flattening. However, that sequential growth rate is notably lower than the 84% annualized pace, hinting at a potential early sign of market saturation or normalization as the initial patient population is captured. The bottom line is that BRIUMVI remains a powerful growth catalyst, but its momentum is beginning to show some signs of cooling. For the stock to rally on the JPM stage, management must not only confirm the raised $585 million target but also articulate a credible plan for how the growth rate can be maintained or accelerated in 2026. Without that, the impressive Q3 numbers risk being seen as a peak rather than a new plateau.

The Pipeline Risk: Phase 3 Data as the Next Catalyst

The company's pipeline offers the next major catalyst, but it arrives with significant binary risk. The focus is on ublituximab's Phase 3 program for relapsing multiple sclerosis, with two key trial timelines. The primary completion for the first trial is expected on September 1, 2026, with the second trial's primary completion set for December 31, 2026. These dates mark the first potential inflection points for the drug's development path.

The critical risk disclaimer is unavoidable: the safety and efficacy of our investigational compounds... have not been established. This is not just boilerplate; it underscores that ublituximab remains an unproven therapy in this indication. The FDA has not approved it, and any data from these trials will be scrutinized for both clinical benefit and potential safety signals.

This sets up a classic binary event. Positive Phase 3 results could serve as a major near-term catalyst, validating the drug's potential and potentially unlocking a new revenue stream. It would shift the narrative from a single-product story to one with a diversified pipeline. Conversely, negative or underwhelming data would likely trigger a sharp valuation reset. Given the stock's recent weakness, the market is already pricing in a degree of risk. The Phase 3 data, therefore, represents the next high-stakes test where the company's fortunes could swing dramatically in either direction.

The Setup: Valuation and What to Watch

The market's stance is clear. With shares down 1.6% today to $29.41, the stock is pricing in execution risk, not just growth. This isn't a valuation based on future promise; it's a discount for near-term uncertainty. The recent weakness suggests investors are skeptical that the company can consistently deliver on its raised targets or that the pipeline will provide timely catalysts. The JPM presentation is the immediate test of whether this discount is justified.

Management must provide specific, forward-looking signals to shift the trajectory. The key watchpoints are twofold. First, commentary on Q4 revenue guidance and any updates on the pace of BRIUMVI's growth. The raised $585 million U.S. target is a baseline; investors will want to see confidence in hitting or exceeding it, and more importantly, a credible plan for sustaining momentum into 2026. Second, any new information on the ublituximab Phase 3 timelines or early data readouts. While the primary completions are set for September and December 2026, management could offer a more detailed development roadmap or discuss potential interim analyses that could move the needle sooner.

The immediate risk is that the presentation fails to deliver new, positive catalysts. If management merely reiterates past guidance without fresh insight or a compelling growth narrative, it will likely reinforce the stock's downward trend. The market has already discounted a degree of risk; a lack of new information would signal that the company has nothing to offer to change the narrative. For the stock to rally, the JPM stage must provide a clear, credible path forward that justifies the current price.