Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) Market Overview – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-04

• Price action shows a bearish continuation with XTZ/USDT closing below 0.7188.
• Volatility expanded mid-session before narrowing, suggesting consolidation.
• Negative momentum in RSI and MACD hints at overbought exhaustion.
• Volume spiked during the 17:15–19:30 ET window, confirming bearish bias.
• Key support at 0.7141 was tested, potentially setting a short-term floor.

XTZUSDT opened at 0.7201 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at 0.7188 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.7353 and a low of 0.7082. Total volume amounted to 4,140,620.7 with a notional turnover of 2,874,165 USDT over 24 hours. The price path shows a bearish consolidation amid strong volume clusters.

Structure & Formations

Price has tested key support levels at 0.7141 and 0.7181, with a bearish trend reinforced by the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern around 0.7261–0.7252 and a morning doji at 0.7188–0.7188. A 24-hour descending triangle is forming between 0.7181 and 0.7353, indicating potential for further consolidation or a continuation below 0.7141.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has spent most of the session below both the 20 (0.7215) and 50 (0.7235) SMAs, suggesting short-term bearish control. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA sits at ~0.7220, with the price currently under that level, reinforcing a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed bearishly below the zero line and remains negative, suggesting continued downward momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory below 30 at 0.7136–0.7126, hinting that further downside could be limited unless volume declines.

Bollinger Bands

Price recently expanded beyond the upper band at 0.7353 but has since fallen within the narrowing bands between 0.7082 and 0.7188. This contraction suggests a potential breakout or consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:15–19:30 ET window, confirming bearish continuation. Turnover was highest at 0.7136–0.7126 and 0.7181–0.7192. A divergence between price and volume appears at 0.7198–0.7201, suggesting possible exhaustion in the bear move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% retracement of the 0.7082–0.7353 swing sits at 0.7208 and was a minor resistance. The 61.8% level is at 0.7172, which has been tested multiple times and may offer support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when price closes below the 20-period SMA with volume above the 24-hour average, and RSI confirms oversold conditions (below 30). A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.7172. If the 0.7141 support holds, a partial exit or trailing stop might be considered. This strategy aligns with the observed descending triangle and bearish momentum, but should be backtested over a multi-month period to confirm statistical reliability.