Tezos/Tether Market Overview

• Price action on XTZ/USDT was bearish for much of the 24-hour window, ending below key support.
• Volatility remained elevated with a 24-hour volume of 894,299.5 and turnover of $677,545.9.
• RSI and MACD suggest weakening momentum and potential oversold conditions, hinting at short-term rebound potential.
• Bollinger Bands showed price hovering near lower band, indicating tight consolidation and possible reversal cues.
• Fibonacci levels suggest 0.752–0.754 as potential support with resistance at 0.758–0.760.

15-Minute Market Summary

Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) opened at 0.7703 on September 20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.7519 at 12:00 ET on September 21, with a high of 0.7717 and a low of 0.7484. The pair recorded a total volume of 894,299.5 and a notional turnover of approximately $677,545.9. Price action was bearish for most of the session, punctuated by a late rally that failed to close above key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action exhibited a series of bearish patterns over the past 24 hours, with several bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow doji at 0.7534, indicating indecision and a potential short-term bottom. Key support levels emerged around 0.752–0.754, while resistance remains at 0.758–0.760, where several failed breakouts were observed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The 20-period MA was at 0.7553, while the 50-period MA was at 0.7567. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are likely aligned bearishly, reinforcing the downward bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram remained negative and narrowing, suggesting weakening bearish momentum, with the zero line close to crossing over. RSI reached oversold levels near 30, indicating a potential short-term bounce may occur. However, RSI failed to form a bullish divergence, casting doubt on the strength of any near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained high, with the Bollinger Bands expanding throughout the session. Price closed near the lower band at 0.7519, signaling a potential rebound scenario. The upper band remained around 0.757–0.758, with prices failing to close above it in recent sessions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late hours of the session, particularly between 02:00 and 03:00 ET, with a high of 19,392.3 volume at 02:30 ET. This was followed by a significant decline in activity. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the highest notional value occurring at 02:30 ET. Price and turnover were in alignment during this time, suggesting a genuine bearish push.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from 0.7717 to 0.7484, key levels include 0.7615 (23.6%), 0.7565 (38.2%), and 0.7523 (61.8%). The 61.8% level has shown strong support, with price bouncing off it several times. A break below 0.7493 would suggest a deeper bearish phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on oversold RSI levels and volume confirmation to generate long entries near the 0.752–0.754 support range. The strategy would require RSI to be below 30, price to close near the lower Bollinger Band, and a volume spike to confirm a reversal. Stop-loss would be placed just below the recent swing low at 0.7484, with take-profit targeting the 38.2% retracement at 0.7565. This approach could be tested over the past six months to assess its robustness in similar conditions.