Tezos/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-29

• XTZ/USDT declined from 0.6126 to 0.5888, with bearish momentum intensifying after 19:30 ET.
• Volume surged to 65K during the 20:15–20:30 ET sell-off, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Key support held at 0.5920–0.5930, while 0.5850–0.5880 is a critical short-term target.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, though rebound strength is yet to be confirmed.
• Volatility expanded after 20:15 ET, suggesting possible reversal or consolidation ahead.

Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) opened at 0.6089 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.6126, and closed at 0.5981 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 650,579.9, with notional turnover rising to $386,412. The pair saw a sharp sell-off in the evening, with price falling below key short-term support.

Structure & Formations

Price action suggests a bearish breakdown below the 0.5930–0.5940 support range, confirming a shift in momentum. A strong engulfing bearish candle formed around 19:30–20:15 ET, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend. A doji at 0.5934–0.5935 hints at indecision, but was quickly followed by a test of the 0.5850–0.5880 level, which may act as a pivot for near-term stability.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (0.6007) and 50SMA (0.6005) remain above the current price, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day moving averages are all above current levels, suggesting that XTZ is in a longer-term bearish trend. A test of the 200-day MA (0.5825) may come into focus in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dropped to 29, signaling oversold conditions. However, this does not guarantee a reversal, as the MACD remains in negative territory with the signal line below the histogram. A bullish crossover on the MACD would be needed to confirm a potential rebound, while RSI above 30 without a follow-through could lead to a false bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained near the lower band of the Bollinger Band for much of the 24-hour period, with a brief contraction observed around 02:00–04:00 ET before another sharp sell-off. The expansion suggests heightened volatility and potential for either a rebound or further bearish movement, depending on whether traders take defensive positions or continue selling.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sell-off in the 20:15–20:45 ET window, with over 65K units traded in the hour. Notional turnover spiked to $238,600 during this period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, volume has since moderated, suggesting that short-term selling pressure may be subsiding. A divergence between price and volume could signal a reversal if it continues.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the recent high of 0.6126 to the low of 0.5888, the 38.2% retracement level is at 0.6033, while the 61.8% level is at 0.5947. Price has been consolidating near the 61.8% level, which may act as a key support/resistance pivot in the next 24 hours. A break below 0.5920 would confirm a deeper correction toward the 50% Fibonacci level of 0.5988.

Backtest Hypothesis

While the current analysis highlights key support and overbought/oversold conditions, a robust backtesting strategy could help refine these insights. In the context of the earlier request, if we apply a simple RSI-14-based trading strategy—buying when RSI falls below 30 and exiting when it crosses back above—we could gain deeper insight into the effectiveness of such signals in a market like XTZUSDT. This would allow us to assess how the recent bearish move compares historically and whether oversold conditions reliably lead to recoveries. Once the correct trading ticker is provided, this strategy could be implemented over a multi-year period to test its viability across different market environments.